The Braves (65-36, 33-19 home) will host the Brewers (57-47, 28-23 away) in game two of this National League series. Starting for the Braves is Bryce Elder, while the Brewers are giving the ball to Julio Teheran. Read on to see my pick for this showdown between Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS VS ATLANTA BRAVES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 Runs

This game will be played at Truist Park at 7:20 ET on Saturday, July 29th.

WHY BET THE MILWAUKEE BREWERS:

  • The Brewers will be taking on a Braves club that is just 2-3 vs. the runline over their last five games.
  • Over their last three games on the road, Milwaukee is 2-1 against the runline.
  • Opponents are hitting a healthy .350 against Bryce Elder in his last three starts.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE WINNING WAYS ON THE ROAD

For the season, the Brewers are 57-47 and 49-55 against the runline. In the NL Central, they are in 1st place and have gone 22-10 against division opponents. On the road, Milwaukee have won five straight series. The Brewers’ season-long over/under record sits at 43-58.

Julio Teheran has had a mixed season thus far for the Brewers, with an overall record of 2-4 in 10 appearances. His ERA stands at 3.75, while his K/9 figure is 6.24 and his FIP is 4.70. Additionally, Teheran’s OBP is .264.

Julio Teheran notched a quality start in his last appearance, tossing six frames and allowing one run. Nevertheless, the Brewers were unable to defeat the Braves, falling 4-2.

The Brewers’ offense comes into today’s game with a collective batting average of .233 and are averaging 4.1 runs per game for the season. Looking at their ten most recent games, Milwaukee has gone deep seven times, which is ranked 14th in that time. To date, the team’s OPS is .689 to go along with an on base percentage of .312.

Christian Yelich has been a major contributor to the Brewers’ offense this season, as evidenced by his 15 home runs and .286 batting average. Over the last five games, he has led the team in long balls with one.

WILL THE ATLANTA BRAVES TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS AT HOME?

The Braves have been struggling at home of late, dropping two straight series at Truist Park. Atlanta’s runline record at home is 25-27 and 52-49 overall. Currently, they are 65-36 and 1st in the NL East. The Braves have an over/under record of 53-44.

Bryce Elder has been impressive in 2023, entering the game with a 7-2 record and 3.30 ERA. On the road, he has gone 4-1 with a 3.83 ERA while at home he is 3-1 with a 4.43 ERA. His season-long WHIP stands at 1.23, along with an opponents’ batting average of .236 and slugging percentage of .370.

Despite not factoring into the decision, Bryce Elder had a quality start in his last outing for the Braves. He pitched six innings, allowing two runs on four hits as Atlanta secured a 4-2 victory over Milwaukee.

So far this season, the Braves’ has gone deep 191 times, placing them 1st in the league. Over Atlanta’s previous five games, they are 13th in runs scored, with their season average of 5.6 runs per game putting them 3rd in the league. The Braves’ overall team batting average stands at .268 along with an OBP of .337.

Austin Riley has been a major contributor to the Atlanta Braves’ offensive success this season. The third baseman is batting .272 with a .491 slugging percentage, and he’s been especially effective over the last ten games. During that span, Riley leads the team in hits with a .344 average.