Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Free Pick 09/26/19

Christian Yelich and the surging Milwaukee Brewers are set to take on their division rival Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Fox Sports Ohio will be televising the action and the game is scheduled to get underway at 12:35 p.m. ET.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds

The Brewers are 88-70 SU and are 74-83 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 7.1 units for moneyline bettors, despite having lost 15.5 units ATS. Milwaukee has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Reds, on the other hand, are 73-85 SU and 83-74 ATS. The team’s lost 9.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 1.4 units ATS. Cincinnati has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven outings and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Reds games have an over/under record of 58-90-9 in 2019. Milwaukee has also been a great under bet with a total record of 67-85-5.

Right-hander Chase Anderson is projected to start for the visiting Brewers. Anderson is 7-4 with a 4.30 ERA and 122 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with 14 strikeouts and a 5.51 ERA against Cincinnati this year (three starts).

The Reds are putting the ball in the right hand of Luis Castillo (15-7, 3.25 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), who has 218 strikeouts and 75 walks this season. Castillo is 1-2 with 26 strikeouts and a 3.86 ERA across four starts against Milwaukee this year.

Cincinnati’s pitching staff has yielded 4.4 runs per game overall in 2019 as a unit. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.09, a WHIP of 1.22 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.7. The bullpen has a 4.41 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. In 72 games against divisional opponents, Reds starters have an ERA of 4.27 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.11.

The Cincinnati offense has produced 4.3 runs per outing, including 4.6 per game against divisional foes and 2.2 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .212/.282/.321 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that span.

The Reds’ hitters have been led by third baseman Eugenio Suarez and shortstop Jose Iglesias. Suarez is slashing .273/.354/.577 with 49 home runs, 103 RBIs and 87 runs scored, and the line for Iglesias stands at .283/.309/.400 with 11 homers, 55 RBIs and 60 runs.

In the other dugout, Milwaukee’s pitchers have allowed 4.7 runs per game and its starters own a 4.49 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.44 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.30, along with a WHIP of 1.35 and a K-per-9 of 10.17.

Brewers hitters have slashed .247/.331/.440 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 7.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (5-0 SU).

Outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain continue to lead Milwaukee’s hitters. Yelich is slashing .329/.429/.671 with 44 home runs, 97 RBIs, 100 runs and 30 stolen bases, while Cain is slashing .255/.320/.362 with 10 homers, 47 RBIs, 74 runs and 18 stolen bases.

The Brewers have gained 8.1 units and are 53-55 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 51 of those games, as opposed to 55 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 2.6 units and are 63-55 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 44 of those games, compared to 68 which went under the total.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER