Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick 09/25/19

Eugenio Suarez and the Cincinnati Reds are squaring off against the Milwaukee Brewers at Great American Ball Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Ohio will televise the matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Odds

Milwaukee (getting -130) is the favorite over Cincinnati (+120) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this game at 9 runs. Odds for playing the game’s total stand at -120 for the over and +100 for the under. This game currently has a runline of Brewers -1.5 (+115) and Reds +1.5 (-135).

The Brewers have gone 87-70 SU this year and are 73-83 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 6.1 units for moneyline bettors, despite having lost 16.5 units ATS. Milwaukee’s covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Reds, on the other hand, are 73-84 SU and 83-73 ATS. They’ve lost 8.3 units for moneyline bettors and 0.3 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Reds games have an over/under record of 58-89-9 in 2019. Milwaukee has also been a great under bet with a total record of 67-84-5.

Jordan Lyles will get the start for the visiting Brewers. The right-handed Lyles (11-8, 4.10 ERA) has recorded 140 strikeouts in 136 innings so far. He’s 0-1 with five strikeouts and a 3.00 ERA against Cincinnati this year (two starts).

The Reds are sending righty Tyler Mahle (2-11, 4.93 ERA) to the mound. Mahle has 123 strikeouts and 31 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.28. Mahle is 0-0 with eight strikeouts and a 4.50 ERA in one start against Milwaukee this year.

Cincinnati’s pitching staff has yielded 4.4 runs per game overall in 2019 as a unit. The team’s starting pitching staff has a 4.03 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.45 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. In 71 divisional games, Reds starters have an ERA of 4.13 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.21.

The Cincinnati offense is putting up 4.4 runs per outing, including 4.6 per game against divisional foes and 2.4 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .237/.306/.337 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Reds’ offense has been led by third baseman Eugenio Suarez and shortstop Jose Iglesias. Suarez is hitting .270/.352/.571 with 48 home runs, 102 RBIs and 86 runs scored, and Iglesias is hitting .284 with 11 homers, 55 RBIs and 60 runs scored.

In the other dugout, Milwaukee’s pitching staff allowed 4.7 runs per game and its starters own a 4.49 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.42 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.32, along with a K-per-9 of 10.19.

Brewers hitters have slashed .247/.331/.438 on their way to 4.7 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (5-0 SU).

Outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain continue to lead Milwaukee’s offense. Yelich is slashing .329/.429/.671 with 44 home runs, 97 RBIs, 100 runs and 30 stolen bases. Cain is hitting .252/.318/.358 with 10 homers, 47 RBIs, 73 runs and 18 stolen bases.

The Brewers have gained 7.1 units and are 52-55 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 51 of those games, compared to 54 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 1.5 units and are 63-54 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 44 of those games, compared to 67 which went under the total.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER