Making on a bet on this NCAA game featuring the Spartans versus the Boilermakers? Tip off is at at 8:00 ET, and you can watch it all unfold on FOX. The game will be played at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, IN. The over/under line for this matchup is currently at 145 points, and Purdue is favored by -10.5 to win at home against Michigan State.


The Pick: Michigan State Spartans +10.5

This game will be played at Mackey Arena at 8:00 ET on Saturday, March 2nd.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-69 in favor of the Boilermakers.
  • Even though we have Purdue winning straight-up, we like Michigan State at +10.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 145 points, and we like the under with a projected 144 points.

Can the Spartans Pull Off a Road Win?

Michigan State has struggled on the road this season, going just 3-5, but the Spartans have won their last two games away from home. Their average scoring margin on the road is -2.8 compared to +12.8 at home.

Overall, Michigan State is 17-11, including a 9-8 mark in Big Ten play. The Spartans have lost two in a row and are 2-4 as the underdog this season. In their last game, they fell to Ohio State, 60-57.

Michigan State has an ATS record of 16-12 this season. They are 4-4 vs. the spread on the road and 3-3 as the underdog. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Spartans are 5-5 ATS.

Michigan State’s over/under record for the season sits at 12-16, and the average scoring total in their games is 140.4 points. Today’s over/under line of 145 is higher than the average OU line in their games this year (142), and in their last three games, the average scoring total is 134 points. So far, 17 of their games this season have finished with less than 145 points.

Against Ohio State, the Michigan State had a tough time putting up points compared to their season average of 74.4 points per game. They scored 57 points and posted a field goal percentage of 40% in the game. The top scorer for the Spartans was Malik Hall with 15 points, while Tyson Walker also added 12 to the scoreboard.

At this time, the Spartans’ defense is positioned 37th in the country, permitting 66.0 points per game. On average, opposing teams are hitting 7.5 threes per game vs. Purdue. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 32.3%.

Can the Boilermakers Pull Out the Win as Home Favorites?

At home this season, Purdue has been dominant, going 17-0. Over their last 10 games at home, they have a record of 10-0. On the year, they have outscored opponents by an average of 20.8 points per game at home.

Today, they are favored by 10.5 points. This season, the Boilermakers have been favored in 27 of their 28 games, going 24-3.

As the favorite, Purdue has gone 14-11-2 against the spread this season. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Boilermakers are 5-5 vs. the spread. At home this year, Purdue is 10-6-1 ATS and they have gone 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games at Mackey Arena.

Today’s over/under line of 145 is lower than the average over/under line in Purdue’s games this season (147.9). So far, 10 of their games have finished with less than 145 points. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and the average scoring total is 155 points.

Purdue’s offense is coming off a good game, putting up 84 points vs. Michigan. Overall, they hit 47.1% of their shots from the field and went 13/19 from the free-throw line. For the season, the Purdue offense has been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the NCAA with a field goal percentage of 49%. So far, they have hit 54% of their looks from inside the arc, and are averaging 8.5 made three’s per contest.

The Boilermakers’ defense is presently ranked 113rd nationally, allowing an average of 70.1 points per contest. Purdue’s three-point defense is currently 176th in the country at 7.6 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 41.9% of their shots vs. Purdue.