Looking to win big? The Spartans and Nittany Lions face off at 6:30 ET on BTN. The Nittany Lions are hosting the game at Bryce Jordan Center in University Park, PA. Michigan State come into this Big Ten conference matchup as the -3.5 favorite. The over/under line currently sits at 144 points.


The Pick: Penn State Nittany Lions +3.5

This game will be played at Bryce Jordan Center at 6:30 ET on Wednesday, February 14th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-68 in favor of the Nittany Lions.
  • Not only will Penn State pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +3.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 144 points, and we like the under with a projected 143 points.

Will Michigan State Come Through as Road Favorites?

Michigan State has been a much better team at home this season, as they are 14-4 compared to 1-5 on the road. This is part of a 10-game win streak at home, and they have an average scoring margin of +14.8 points per game at home. On the road, they are -6.7.

So far this season, the Spartans have been favored in 18 of their 24 games, going 13-5 in those matchups. They are coming off an 88-80 win over Illinois, and they have gone 3-7 in their last 10 road games.

Michigan State has an ATS record of 14-10 this season and they are 11-7 vs. the spread when favored. On the road, the Spartans have gone 2-4 vs. the spread this year and over their last 10 road games, they are 4-6 vs. the spread. As the favorite, Michigan State has gone 7-3 vs. the spread over their last 10 games.

Today’s over/under line of 144 is a bit higher than the average over/under line in Michigan State’s games this season (141.5). So far, 15 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2 with an average scoring total of 133 points.

In their latest game, Michigan State’s offense looked good, scoring 88 points against Illinois. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 52.7% and made 25/34 free throws. The team’s top scorer is Tyson Walker, who comes into today’s matchup with an average of 19, while Malik Hall also maintains a PPG average of 11.8 leading up to the game.

Coming into today’s game, the Michigan State defense is giving up an average of 65.6 points per contest. In today’s game vs. Penn State, the Michigan State defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, Michigan State made 25 free-throws vs. the Spartans.

No Pressure for Penn State as Home Dogs

Despite being the underdog, Penn State has been much better at home this season, going 10-4 compared to 2-8 on the road. They have also been slightly better as the underdog, going 6-8 compared to 6-4 as the favorite. After a 68-63 loss to Northwestern, the Nittany Lions’ overall record is 12-12, and their conference record is 6-7.

Penn State has gone 6-4 in their last 10 games at home, and they are 3-2 in their last five. On the season, they have an average scoring margin of +10.0 points per game at home compared to -7.6 points per game on the road. Their record in Big Ten play is 6-7, and they are 6-5 in non-conference games.

As the underdog, Penn State has been a solid bet vs. the spread this season, going 9-5 in that role. Their overall ATS mark sits at .500 (12-12), but they have been particularly strong vs. the spread as the underdog. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Nittany Lions are 7-3.

This season, the over/under record for Penn State games is 14-9-1, and today’s line of 144 is similar to the average over/under line in their games this year (146.1). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 151 points, which is higher than the season average of 149.2. On the year, 16 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line.

The Penn State offense, in their latest game, managed to score just 63 points versus Northwestern. During the game, they attempted 19 three-point shots and had a field goal percentage of 43.8%. Offensively, the Nittany Lions hold a season-long field goal percentage of 44%, placing them 229th in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 290th in terms of percentage and 154th in three-pointers made.

On defense, Penn State is currently around the NCAA average in points allowed, giving up an average of 73.3 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Penn State’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 46.0% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 30.9% this season.