Michigan State at No. 14 Michigan College Football Betting Pick 11/16/19


The Michigan State Spartans (+14) are set to face off against their Big 10 nemesis No. 14 Michigan Wolverines (-14) at Michigan Stadium. This afternoon game will start at 12:00 p.m. ET and FOX will broadcast the action.

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Michigan State at No. 14 Michigan Betting Odds 11/16/2019

The spread for this Big 10 game is sitting at 14 points in favor of Michigan. The Spartans are currently receiving +500 moneyline odds while the Wolverines are -735. The over/under has been set at 44 points. There will likely be multiple good live betting possibilities in this showdown.

The line opened at -15 while the total has not moved after being initially set at 44.

The Spartans are 4-5 straight up (SU), including 2-4 SU against conference opponents. The Wolverines are 7-2 SU overall and 4-2 SU in conference play. The hapless Spartans are down 19.4 units so far and 2-7 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under record of 4-5.

The Wolverines have gained 0.0 units this season. The team is 5-4 ATS and the over has hit in six of its games.

Michigan enters this one on a four-game losing streak while Michigan State has won its last two in a row. The Spartans came up short to Illinois 37-34 in a game where the passing attack could’ve been better as Brian Lewerke completed just 19 passes on 36 attempts for 251 yards, one score and three interceptions. Elijah Collins (170 yards on 28 rush attempts, two TDs) and the signal-caller Lewerke (96 yards on 11 carries, one TD) led the running attack in the loss. Cody White (seven receptions, 128 yards) and Tre Mosley (three catches, 32 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.

Michigan just earned a 38-7 win over Maryland two weeks ago. The team’s defense allowed the Terrapins to rush for 129 yards on 46 attempts. Anthony McFarland Jr. had a good outing in the loss for Maryland, posting 60 rushing yards on 14 attempts. As a group, the Wolverines collectively completed 16-of-29 passes for 176 yards and one touchdown. Shea Patterson went 13-for-22 for 151 yards and one touchdown while Dylan McCaffrey was three-of-seven for 25 yards. Hassan Haskins logged an outstanding statline in the win. Along with 60 yards on 13 rush attempts (and one TD), Haskins also reeled in three receptions for 9 yards.

Michigan State has run the ball on 49.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Michigan has an overall rush percentage of 57.8 percent. The Spartans have rushed for 131 yards per game (including 118 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have 10 scores via handoffs this year. The Wolverines are averaging 171 rush yards per contest (149 in conference) and have 23 total rushing TDs.

If 2019 results are any indication, then it’s looking like the Wolverines ought to hold an edge when it comes to efficiency in the ground game, as their running backs has generated 4.2 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 2.9 YPC to opponents. The Spartans have rushed for 3.8 yards per carry while allowing 3.1 YPC to opponents.

The Spartans have averaged 235 yards through the air overall (216 per game against conference opposition) and have 12 passing TDs so far. The Wolverines have produced 219 pass yards per outing (231.2 in the Big 10) and have 14 total pass scores.

Defensively, Michigan State has allowed 108 rush yards and 215 pass yards per game. Michigan has allowed 112.7 yards per game on the ground and 153.6 to opposing teams in the air. The Wolverines are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.11 to opposing QBs, while the Spartans have given up a 5.35 ANY/A.

Patterson has recorded 1,673 yards, 10 TDs and four INTs for Michigan. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 6.80 for the season and 8.08 over his last two games. In the other locker room, Lewerke is up to 1,847 passing yards this year, and has connected on 150-of-264 attempts with 12 passing touchdowns and six interceptions. Lewerke’s got a 6.43 ANY/A for the year, although that number sits at 3.36 over the last two games.

When these two programs met last year, Michigan knocked Michigan State off by two touchdowns 21-7.

Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines NCAA Pick

SU Winner – Michigan State, ATS Winner – Michigan State, O/U – Under


Team Betting Notes

The O/U for Michigan State’s previous game was set at 47.5. The over cashed in the team’s 37-34 defeat to Illinois.

Michigan State has averaged 3.8 yards per rush attempt over its past three games and 4.4 over its last two.

Michigan has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.0 over its past two.

The Michigan offense has lost nine fumbles this season while Michigan State has let eight get away.

In its last three matchups, Michigan State is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for Michigan’s previous match was set at 58. The under cashed in the 38-7 victory over Maryland.

Over its last three matches, Michigan is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

Michigan has won six of its last seven games SU, with a -7-point defeat to Penn State on October 19th representing its one loss over that stretch.

The Spartans offense has registered four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Wolverines have put up five such plays.

The Michigan State defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Michigan has given up two such plays.

Both defenses have produced 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Michigan State offense has recorded 33 running plays of 10+ yards while Michigan has accounted for 46 such plays.

The Spartans defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Wolverines have given up six such runs.

The Michigan defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 28 times this year. Michigan State has recorded 25 sacks.

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