Leading up to game two of this NL East battle, the Phillies (90-72, 49-32 home) will send Aaron Nola to the mound to take on the Marlins (84-77, 38-43 away) and Braxton Garrett. Find out who I like to come out on top in this Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies matchup in Philadelphia.
MIAMI MARLINS VS PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING PICK
The Pick: Miami Marlins +130
This game will be played at Citizens Bank Park at 8:08 ET on Wednesday, October 4th.
WHY BET THE MIAMI MARLINS:
- Over their last five games on the road, Miami has a straight-up record of 3-2.
- In their last five games as the underdog, the Marlins have put together a record of 3-2.
- Opponents are hitting just .195 against Braxton Garrett in his last three starts.
MIAMI MARLINS TRYING TO CLOSE GAP IN NL EAST
Entering game 162 of their season, the Marlins are 20 games out in the NL East and are in 3rd place. So far, their overall series record stands at 24-25-1. Miami’s road winning percent is currently 46.9% (38-43) compared to 56.8% at home (46-35).
Braxton Garrett is set to make his 32nd appearance of the season, boasting a 9-7 record with an ERA of 3.66 and OBP allowed of .287. He has struck out 156 batters while maintaining a WHIP of 1.15. Garrett’s road ERA stands at 2.99, compared to 5.18 when playing at home.
Braxton Garrett was dealt the loss in the Marlins’ 11-2 defeat to the Mets after surrendering four runs on three hits over four innings.
The Marlins have been one of the top power lineups in the league of late, having hit 3 home runs over their last five games. Compared to other clubs, this is 9th best in that span. For the season, they are ranked 20th in home runs and 17th in slugging percentage. Overall, Miami is averaging 4.1 runs per game (25th).
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been the Marlins’ most prolific home run hitter this season, with 19 long balls in 2023. In the last five games, he has hit one out of the park, and his batting average stands at .250.
WILL THE PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS AT HOME?
The Phillies will be playing their 162nd game of the season today and are 2nd in the NL East on a record of 90-72. So far, Philadelphia has won 60.5% of their games at home compared to 50.6% on the road. Against divisional opponents, the Phillies are 25-27 and have played a total of 50 series, going 29-18-3.
Aaron Nola is on the mound for Philadelphia, boasting a 12-9 record across 32 appearances. His ERA stands at 4.46, with a K/9 of 9.39 and FIP of 4.03, while his OBP is .276.
Aaron Nola’s most recent start saw him deliver a quality outing, giving up one run on four hits across 6 2/3 innings. Despite not being credited with the win, the Phillies were able to come away with a 3-2 victory over the Pirates.
This season, the Phillies are 8th in the league at 4.9 runs per game. Over their last five games, they have a combined batting average of .234 (17th) leading to 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are generating 3.3 walks per game compared to 9 strikeouts. Philadelphia’s on-base percentage of .327 has them 7th in the MLB.
This season, Kyle Schwarber has been the Phillies’ go-to slugger. He leads the team in home runs with 47 and RBIs with 104. His slugging percentage is an impressive .474, making him a powerful force in the lineup.