Starlin Castro and the Miami Marlins will take the field against their division rival New York Mets at Citi Field. SportsNet New York will be showing the action and the game gets going at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Miami Marlins at New York Mets Odds

Miami (+210) is the underdog to New York (-230) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this night game at 8 runs. Odds for playing the game’s total sit at -110 for both the over and the under. This game currently has a runline of Marlins +1.5 (-105) and Mets -1.5 (-115).

The Marlins are 55-101 SU and have gone 79-76 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 17.2 units for moneyline gamblers and 8.1 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Mets, on the other hand, are 81-75 SU and 81-74 ATS. The team’s lost 6.2 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 0.7 units ATS. New York has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven.

Mets games have an over/under record of 77-65-13 in 2019. Miami has an over/under record of 73-70-12.

Right-hander Sandy Alcantara will get the start for Miami. Alcantara is 5-14 with a 4.00 ERA and 140 strikeouts. He’s 1-2 with 19 strikeouts and a 3.51 ERA against New York this year (four starts).

The Mets will be sending righty Noah Syndergaard (10-8, 4.22 ERA) to the mound. Syndergaard has 186 punchouts and 48 walks to his credit as well as a WHIP of 1.22. Syndergaard is 1-1 with 12 strikeouts and a 2.57 ERA across two starts against Miami this year.

New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.6 runs per game overall in 2019 as a unit. Its starters have a 3.89 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.11 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. In 70 games against NL East opponents, Mets starters have an ERA of 4.36 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.93.

The New York hitters are putting up 4.9 runs per contest, including 5.0 per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .236/.332/.448 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.

Shortstop Amed Rosario and outfielder Jeff McNeil have led the Mets’ batters this year. Rosario is hitting .286/.322/.434 with 15 home runs, 70 RBIs, 73 runs and 18 steals, while McNeil’s line sits at .316/.384/.531 with 23 homers, 73 RBIs and 82 runs.

In the visiting dugout, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.55 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 8.17 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.08, along with a K-per-9 of 9.24.

The Marlins offense has slashed .241/.302/.373 on its way to 3.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 3.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Miami’s hitters have been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and first baseman Miguel Rojas. Castro is slashing .270/.299/.433 with 21 home runs, 83 RBIs and 66 runs scored, while Rojas is hitting .285/.333/.385 with five homers, 46 RBIs and 49 runs scored.

The Marlins have lost 17.4 units and are 55-59 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 50 of those games, as opposed to 55 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Mets have netted 0.2 units and are 60-56 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 60 of those games, compared to 46 that went under the total.

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER


Betting Trends

The under has cashed in five of New York’s last seven games.

The Marlins have a team OPS of .675 this season and an OPS of .663 against right-handed pitchers. The Mets’ OPS sits at .770 overall and .763 against righties.

New York has posted 18.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 21.8 over its last five.

The Marlins have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.