Amed Rosario and the New York Mets will play host to their division rival Miami Marlins at Citi Field. The action will get underway at 7:10 p.m. ET and SportsNet New York is in line to broadcast the game.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets Odds
Miami (+300) is the underdog against New York (-375) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this one at 7.5 runs (-110 for the over and -110 for the under). There’s a runline of Marlins +1.5 (+150) and Mets -1.5 (-170) for this matchup.
The Marlins are 55-102 SU and have gone 80-76 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 14.9 units for moneyline bettors and 7.0 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Mets, on the other hand, are 82-75 SU and 81-75 ATS. They’ve lost 8.7 units for moneyline bettors and 0.6 units ATS. New York has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.
New York games have had an over/under record of 78-65-13 in 2019. Miami has an over/under record of 74-70-12.
The right-handed Robert Dugger is the probable starter for Miami. Dugger (0-3, 4.45 ERA) has recorded 22 strikeouts in 32.1 innings so far. He’s 0-1 with three strikeouts and a 10.80 ERA against New York this year.
The Mets are handing the ball to righty Jacob deGrom (10-8, 2.51 ERA), who has 248 strikeouts and 43 walks as well as a 0.99 WHIP. deGrom is 4-1 with 39 strikeouts and a 2.90 ERA across five starts against Miami this year.
As a unit, New York’s pitchers have given up 4.6 runs per game overall in 2019. The club’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.91, a WHIP of 1.25 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.2. The bullpen has a 5.04 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. In 71 games against NL East opponents, Mets starters have an ERA of 4.39 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.78.
The New York offense has put up 4.9 runs per contest, including 5.0 per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .222/.310/.428 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that span.
The Mets’ batters have been led by shortstop Amed Rosario and left fielder Jeff McNeil. Rosario is slashing .285/.322/.432 with 15 home runs, 70 RBIs, 74 runs and 19 stolen bases, and McNeil is hitting .317 with 23 homers, 73 RBIs and 82 runs scored.
For the visiting squad, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.54 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 8.16 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.10, along with a K/9 of 9.23.
Marlins hitters have slashed .241/.302/.373 on their way to 3.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 3.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Second baseman Starlin Castro and first baseman Miguel Rojas have led Miami’s hitters. Castro is slashing .268/.297/.430 with 21 home runs, 83 RBIs and 66 runs scored, while Rojas (.284/.332/.383) is up to five homers, 46 RBIs and 49 runs scored.
The Marlins have lost 17.4 units and are 55-59 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 50 of those games, compared to 55 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Mets have netted 0.2 units and are 60-56 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 60 of those games, compared to 46 that went under the total.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Free Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
Miami has logged 21 extra-base hits over its last five games. New York has 19 XBH over its last five.
The Marlins have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit 16 over their last 10.
The Marlins have a total OPS of .675 this season and an OPS of .665 against right-handed pitchers. The Mets’ OPS stands at .770 overall and .763 versus righties.
New York has posted 19.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 21.0 over its last five.