The Marlins (58-55, 24-31 away) travel to take on the Reds (59-55, 28-29 home) in game one of this National League matchup. Eury Pérez is getting the start for the Marlins while Brandon Williamson is starting for the Reds. See who I like to pick up the win in today’s Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds showdown at Great American Ball Park.
MIAMI MARLINS VS CINCINNATI REDS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Cincinnati Reds +115
This game will be played at Great American Ball Park at 6:40 ET on Monday, August 7th.
WHY BET THE CINCINNATI REDS:
- In their five most recent games as the favorite, the Marlins have gone just 2-3 straight-up.
- The Marlins have lost their four most recent games as the underdog.
- Eury Pérez has given up three home runs across his last two starts.
MIAMI MARLINS TRYING TO CLOSE GAP IN NL EAST
The Marlins enter today’s game with an overall record of 58-55 which includes going 26-35 against teams with above .500 records. As of today, they are 3rd in the NL East. Across their 35 series, Miami is 18-16-1 and have records of 24-31 and 34-24 on the road and at home, respectively.
Today, Miami starter Eury Pérez will attempt to limit the long ball after surrendering a home-run in each of his last two outings. He has compiled an impressive 5-3 record and 2.36 ERA thus far in 2023, striking out 61 batters and boasting a K/9 rate of 10.29. Additionally, he has issued an average of 2.87 walks per 9 innings pitched.
Eury Pérez was handed the loss in his last start against the Cardinals, despite surrendering just one run over six innings.
For the season, the Marlins are 3rd in batting average, hitting a combined .264. Over their last ten games, they have hit .264 which is 6th in that span. Miami’s average of 4.1 runs per game puts them 23rd in the league. In terms of home runs, they have gone deep 103 times and have a team slugging percentage of .400.
Jorge Soler has been one of the Marlins’ most potent offensive threats in 2023. He currently holds a .241 batting average, and has driven in 59 runs with 26 home runs.
WILL THE CINCINNATI REDS TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS AT HOME?
Through 114 games, the Reds have a record of 59-55. This mark includes going 17-14-4 across their 35 series. Currently, Cincinnati is 2nd in the NL Central and have a 28-29 record at home while going 31-26 on the road. So far, the Reds have gone 34-35 against teams with above .500 records.
Starter Brandon Williamson has been solid for the Reds this season, sporting a 3-2 record in 14 appearances. His ERA of 4.85 and K/9 figure of 7.21 are respectable, while his FIP of 5.25 and OBP of .317 are slightly less impressive.
Brandon Williamson’s last outing for the Reds ended with a no-decision, despite surrendering five runs on four hits over 4 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, the Reds were unable to capitalize on his performance, falling to the Cubs 16-6.
Having gone deep 18 times in their last ten games, the Reds are 4th in that span. At 4.9 runs per game, Cincinnati is 7th in the league. This figure has come on a team batting average of .251 while hitting a total of 133 home runs (11th).
TJ Friedl has been a key contributor to the Reds’ offense over their last five games, leading the team in hits and batting .350. This season, he is hitting .282 with 42 RBIs.