Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Free Pick 08/21/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-08-21

Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Atlanta Braves are searching for their fourth consecutive win as they play host to the slumping Miami Marlins at SunTrust Park. The game gets underway 7:20 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida will broadcast the matchup.

Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Odds

Miami (getting +180) is the underdog against Atlanta (-190) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this game at 9.5 runs. The odds for playing the game’s total stand at -125 for the under and +105 for the over. There’s a runline of Marlins +1.5 (-125) and Braves -1.5 (+105) for this matchup.

The Braves are 75-52 straight up (SU) and 60-66 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 11.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 4.9 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven. The Marlins are 45-79 SU and have gone 62-61 ATS. They’re down 8.2 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 8.3 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.

Atlanta games have had an over/under record of 64-54-8 in 2019. The Marlins have an over/under record of 57-56-10.

Caleb Smith will get the nod for the visiting Marlins. The left-handed Smith is 8-6 with a 3.63 ERA and 131 strikeouts. He’s 1-1 with 17 strikeouts and a 6.48 ERA against Atlanta this year (three starts).

The Braves are going with righty Julio Teheran (7-8, 3.71 ERA), who’s got 128 strikeouts and 66 walks to his name as well as a WHIP of 1.34. Teheran is 2-0 with 22 strikeouts and a 0.36 ERA over four starts against Miami this year.

Atlanta’s pitching staff has allowed 4.9 runs per game overall in 2019 as a unit. The club’s starters have a 4.41 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.44 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 54 games against divisional foes, Braves starters have an ERA of 4.74 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.38.

The Atlanta hitters are putting up 5.4 runs per contest, including 5.8 per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .245/.320/.515 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Braves’ offense has been led by left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and first baseman Freddie Freeman. Acuna Jr. is hitting .296/.376/.537 with 35 home runs, 85 RBIs, 105 runs and 29 stolen bases, and Freeman is hitting .307 with 33 homers, 102 RBIs and 99 runs.

In the other dugout, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.38 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.32 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.13, along with a K/9 of 9.35.

The Marlins offense has slashed .241/.299/.367 on its way to 3.7 runs scored per game in 2019, including 3.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).

Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson continue to lead Miami’s hitters. Castro is slashing .262/.286/.380 with 11 home runs, 58 RBIs and 41 runs scored. Anderson (.264/.343/.475) is up to 20 homers, 65 RBIs and 55 runs scored.

The Marlins have lost 7.2 units and are 43-48 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 39 of those games, as opposed to 45 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 5.6 units and are 15-14 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has cashed in 15 of those games, compared to 11 that went under the total.

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER


Betting Notes

The over has cashed in four of Miami’s last seven games.

The Marlins have hit six home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit 18 over their last 10.

The Marlins have a team OPS of .666 this season and an OPS of .653 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Braves’ OPS sits at .801 overall and .803 against righties.

The Miami defense has permitted five errors over the last five outin, compared to two errors for Atlanta over its last five.

The Marlins have lost seven of their last eight games SU.

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