Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick 09/28/19

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Cesar Hernandez and the Philadelphia Phillies are set to host their division rival Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park. The matchup will get going at 6:05 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to NBC Sports Philadelphia to catch the game.

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Miami (+150) is entering this one as the underdog to Philadelphia (-160) and oddsmakers have the Over/Under for this night game at 9 runs (-110 for the over and -110 for the under). This game currently has a runline of Marlins +1.5 (-145) and Phillies -1.5 (+125).

The Marlins have gone 56-104 SU this year and are 82-77 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 14.5 units for moneyline gamblers and 5.8 units ATS. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 80-80 SU and 75-84 ATS. The team’s lost 9.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 12.3 units ATS.

Phillies games have an over/under record of 74-79-6 in 2019. Marlins games have gone over 76 times, gone under 71 times and pushed on 12 instances.

Caleb Smith will get the nod for Miami. The southpaw Smith is 10-10 with a 4.31 ERA and 167 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with 14 strikeouts and a 0.75 ERA against Philadelphia this year (two starts).

The Phillies are putting the ball in the right hand of Zach Eflin (9-13, 4.16 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), who’s got 123 strikeouts and 46 walks. Eflin is 2-1 with 12 strikeouts and a 4.32 ERA over four starts against Miami this year.

Philadelphia’s pitching staff has allowed 4.9 runs per game overall in 2019 as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 4.62, a WHIP of 1.37 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.4. The bullpen has a 4.43 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 74 games against divisional foes, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.85 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.12.

The Philadelphia offense has put up 4.8 runs per contest, including 5.1 per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over its last five. The team has hit .208/.262/.365 over its last five games and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

The Phillies’ batters have been led by Cesar Hernandez, who is slashing .280/.333/.406 with 13 home runs, 70 RBIs and 75 runs scored.

In the other dugout, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.58 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 8.21 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.01, along with a K/9 of 9.24.

Marlins hitters have slashed .241/.301/.374 on their way to 3.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 3.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Miami’s offense has been spearheaded by Starlin Castro. Castro is hitting .269/.299/.431 with 21 home runs, 84 RBIs and 67 runs scored.

The Phillies snuck away with the previous game in this series by a final tally of five runs to four.

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Notes

Miami has recorded 17 extra-base hits over its last five contests. Philadelphia has 15 XBH over its last five.

The Marlins have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.

The Marlins have a total OPS of .674 this season and an OPS of .665 against right-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS sits at .745 overall and .732 against righties.

Miami has posted 25.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 25.0 over its last five.

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