Miami Marlins at New York Mets Free Pick 09/26/19

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Amed Rosario and the New York Mets are playing host to their NL East rival Miami Marlins at Citi Field. SportsNet New York will broadcast the matchup and the game is scheduled to get underway at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Miami Marlins at New York Mets Odds

The Mets are 83-75 straight up (SU) and 81-76 against the spread (ATS). The team’s lost 7.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 1.9 units ATS. New York has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven. On the other hand, the Marlins are 55-103 SU and have gone 81-76 ATS. They’ve lost 15.9 units for moneyline gamblers and 6.0 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.

New York games have a 79-65-13 over/under record in 2019. Miami has an over/under record of 75-70-12.

The right-handed Jordan Yamamoto will get the start for Miami. Yamamoto is 4-5 with a 4.83 ERA and 72 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with six strikeouts and a 6.00 ERA against New York this year.

The Mets are planning to start righty Zack Wheeler (11-7, 3.99 ERA), who has 185 punchouts and 50 walks to his name as well as a 1.29 WHIP. Wheeler is 2-0 with 16 strikeouts and a 1.20 ERA over two starts against Miami this year.

New York’s pitching staff has allowed 4.6 runs per game overall this season as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 3.88, a WHIP of 1.24 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.2. The bullpen has a 5.02 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. In 72 divisional games, Mets starters have an ERA of 4.32 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.73.

The New York hitters are putting up 4.9 runs per outing, including 5.1 per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .237/.322/.435 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

Shortstop Amed Rosario and left fielder Jeff McNeil have led the charge for the Mets’ hitters this year. Rosario is hitting .287/.323/.434 with 15 home runs, 71 RBIs, 75 runs and 19 stolen bases, and McNeil is batting .318 with 23 homers, 75 RBIs and 83 runs scored.

In the visiting dugout, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starters own a 4.59 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 8.17 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.09, along with a K/9 of 9.25.

Marlins hitters have slashed .241/.301/.373 on their way to 3.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 3.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Second baseman Starlin Castro and first baseman Miguel Rojas continue to lead Miami’s offense. Castro is slashing .267/.296/.428 with 21 home runs, 83 RBIs and 66 runs scored, while Rojas is slashing .281/.329/.380 with five homers, 46 RBIs and 49 runs scored.

The Marlins have lost 18.4 units and are 56-59 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 51 of those games, compared to 55 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Mets have netted 1.2 units and are 60-57 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 61 of those games, compared to 46 that went under.

Miami Marlins at New York Mets MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Trends

Miami has logged 19 extra-base hits over its last five outings. New York has 21 XBH over its last five.

The Marlins have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit 17 over their last 10.

The Marlins have a team OPS of .674 this season and an OPS of .663 against right-handed pitchers. The Mets’ OPS sits at .771 overall and .765 against righties.

Miami has posted 23.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 21.2 over its last five.

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