Miami Marlins at New York Mets Betting Pick 09/23/19

Amed Rosario and the New York Mets are set to do battle against the Miami Marlins at Citi Field. The action will get going at 7:10 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to SportsNet New York to catch the game.

Miami Marlins at New York Mets Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Miami (+180) as the underdog to New York (-190). Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at +100 for over 8.5 runs and -120 for under 8.5. This game currently has a runline of Marlins +1.5 (-125) and Mets -1.5 (+105).

The Marlins are 54-101 SU and are 78-76 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 18.9 units for moneyline bettors and 9.2 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Mets, on the other hand, are 81-74 SU and 80-74 ATS. The team’s lost 7.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 0.3 units ATS. New York has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in six of those seven.

Mets games have a 77-65-12 over/under record in 2019. The Marlins have an over/under record of 73-69-12.

Left-hander Caleb Smith will get the start for the visiting Marlins. Smith is 9-10 with a 4.24 ERA and 164 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with 14 strikeouts and a 3.27 ERA against New York this year (two starts).

The Mets will be sending lefty Steven Matz (10-9, 4.16 ERA) to the mound. Matz has 143 punchouts and 47 walks to his name as well as a 1.33 WHIP. Matz is 1-1 with 16 strikeouts and a 2.87 ERA over three starts against Miami this year.

New York’s pitching staff has allowed 4.6 runs per game overall in 2019 as a unit. The team’s starters have an ERA of 3.85, a WHIP of 1.24 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.2. The bullpen has a 5.11 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. In 69 games against NL East opponents, Mets starters have an ERA of 4.27 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.96.

The New York offense has put up 4.9 runs per contest, including 5.0 per game against divisional foes and 5.8 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .251/.337/.503 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that span.

The Mets’ offense has been led by shortstop Amed Rosario and left fielder Jeff McNeil. Rosario is slashing .286/.323/.431 with 14 home runs, 66 RBIs, 72 runs and 18 steals, while McNeil is batting .317 with 23 homers, 73 RBIs and 82 runs.

In the other dugout, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starters own a 4.54 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 8.19 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.11, along with a WHIP of 1.28.

The Marlins offense has slashed .240/.301/.372 on its way to 3.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 3.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Second baseman Starlin Castro and first baseman Miguel Rojas continue to lead Miami’s hitters. Castro is hitting .271/.300/.435 with 21 home runs, 83 RBIs and 65 runs scored. Rojas is hitting .283/.332/.384 with five homers, 45 RBIs and 48 runs scored.

The Marlins have gained 0.3 units and are 24-17 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 23 of those games, as opposed to 15 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Mets have lost 6.4 units and are 21-18 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has hit in 17 of those games, compared to 19 that’ve gone under.

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER