Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Free Pick 08/22/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-08-22

Starlin Castro and the struggling Miami Marlins will be hitting the diamond against their divisional rival Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park. The action will get underway at 7:20 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida will broadcast the game.

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Odds

Atlanta (getting -265 odds) is the massive favorite over Miami and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this night game at 9 runs. The odds for playing the game’s total sit at -115 for the under and -105 for the over. There’s a runline of Marlins +1.5 (+105) and Braves -1.5 (-125) for this matchup.

The Braves are 76-52 straight up (SU) and 61-66 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 12.3 units for moneyline bettors while earning 3.9 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Marlins have gone 45-80 SU this year and are 62-62 against the spread. They’re down 9.2 units for moneyline gamblers and 9.3 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Atlanta games have an over/under record of 64-55-8 in 2019. Miami has an over/under record of 57-57-10.

Right-hander Sandy Alcantara will get the nod for the visiting Marlins. Alcantara is 4-11 with a 4.35 ERA and 101 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with six strikeouts and a 3.86 ERA against Atlanta this year (two starts).

The Braves will put the ball in the right hand of Mike Soroka (10-2, 2.41 ERA), who’s got 107 punchouts and 33 walks as well as a 1.10 WHIP. Soroka is 2-0 with 18 strikeouts and a 0.41 ERA across three starts against Miami this year.

As a unit, Atlanta’s pitching staff has given up 4.8 runs per game overall this season. The club’s starters have an ERA of 4.36, a WHIP of 1.39 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.3. The bullpen has a 4.42 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 55 games against divisional foes, Braves starters have an ERA of 4.63 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.34.

The Atlanta hitters are putting up 5.4 runs per outing, including 5.8 per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over their last five. The team has hit .213/.298/.440 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

Left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and first baseman Freddie Freeman have led the Braves’ offense this year. Acuna Jr. is hitting .296/.377/.542 with 36 home runs, 87 RBIs, 106 runs and 29 stolen bases, and Freeman’s line sits at .304/.396/.571 with 33 homers, 102 RBIs and 99 runs scored.

In the visiting dugout, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.41 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.34 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 5.10, along with a K/9 of 9.37.

The Marlins offense has slashed .240/.299/.366 on its way to 3.6 runs scored per game this year, including 3.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (0-5 SU).

Miami’s hitters have been paced by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is slashing .260/.284/.377 with 11 home runs, 58 RBIs and 41 runs scored. Anderson (.262/.340/.470) has produced 20 homers, 65 RBIs and 55 runs scored.

The Marlins have lost 7.2 units and are 43-48 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 39 of those games, compared to 45 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 6.8 units and are 46-52 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 49 of those games, compared to 44 that went under the total.

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER


Betting Notes

The under has hit in three of Miami’s last seven games.

The Marlins have a team OPS of .665 this season and an OPS of .653 against right-handed pitchers. The Braves’ OPS stands at .801 overall and .802 against righties.

The Marlins have dropped eight of their last nine games SU.

The Miami defense has allowed six errors over the last five contests, compared to just two errors for Atlanta over its last five.

The Marlins have hit five home runs in their last 10 games, including three over their last five.

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