Miami Heat vs. Washington Wizards Free Pick 12/30/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-12-30

The Washington Wizards (9-22) look to snap the five-game winning streak of Miami when they welcome the Heat (24-8) to Capital One Arena. Action starts at 7 p.m. ET on Monday, December 30, 2019.

Miami Heat at Washington Wizards ATS Preview

The Heat barely escaped the Philadelphia 76ers in their last outing, 117-116, but failed to cover as 1.5-point favorites. Jimmy Butler was Miami’s high scorer with 25 points on 7-for-21 shooting. Miami’s turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Philadelphia. The Heat had a rate of 7.0 (better than their season average of 13.9), while the 76ers posted a mark of 8.1. The two teams combined to put up 233 points, which came in well over the projected point total of 213.5.

The last time the Wizards took the court, they were defeated by the New York Knicks, 107-100, and failed to cover as 3-point underdogs. Isaiah Thomas was Washington’s leading scorer with 20 points on 5-for-21 shooting. New York held the Wizards to an effective field goal percentage of 0.396 (below their season average of 0.532). Washington, on the other hand, forced the Knicks into a turnover percentage of 17.9 (above their season average of 12.3). The two clubs collectively scored 207 points, which finished well under the projected point total of 227.5.

It will be a matchup of opposite styles as the fast-paced Wizards (ranked fifth in the league in possessions per game) will look to push the slower-paced Heat (17th in possessions per game). Also, the Heat’s fifth-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 110.1) will attempt to take advantage of the Wizards’ 30th-ranked defense (defensive efficiency of 114.9).

Games including these teams have typically finished over the O/U total. Miami games have gone over 59.4 percent of the time, while Washington games have finished over 58.1 percent of the time. The Heat have the superior straight up (SU) record (24-8 vs. 9-22) and a slight edge against the spread (ATS) (18-12-2 vs. 16-15).

These two clubs have already met once this season. The two teams combined for 215 points in that game, which was under the projected point total of 227.5. The Heat won 112-103, but were unable to cover as 10-point favorites. The Heat dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a free throw rate of 0.209 and an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.8. The Wizards were 0.143 and 18.8, respectively, for those same stats. Butler played a huge role in the victory, recording a a triple-double with 28 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists.

Miami Heat at Washington Wizards Betting Prediction

Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over

Notes

Betting Notes:

Miami averages 25.3 assists per game, which ranks eighth in the league. Washington ranks 29th in assists allowed per game (26.7).

Washington ranks 14th in three pointers attempted per game (34.2) while Miami ranks 28th in three pointers allowed per game (37.2).

The Heat rank 13th in second chance points allowed per game (12.9) while the Wizards rank 27th (14.5).

Miami is 8-7-1 ATS on the road, while Washington is 5-7 ATS at home.

Bettings Trends:

Washington is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under in its last five games.

Over its last five outings, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.

The Wizards’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 10.4, up from 5.1 for the season.

During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 114.8 points per game (2.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 110.0 points per game (2.3 above their season average).

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