Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs Free Prediction 12/6/17

 

Last Updated: 2017-12-06

The NBA’s top scoring defense will be 7.5-point favorites at home in AT&T Center, when the San Antonio Spurs (16-8) face off with the Miami Heat (11-12). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 197.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports Sun at 8:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 6, 2017.

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs Betting Odds

In their last contest, the Spurs barely escaped the Detroit Pistons, 96-93, while the Heat got blown out by the Golden State Warriors, 123-95.

The Spurs held the Pistons to an offensive rebounding percentage of 14.6 (below their season average of 23.7) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.459 (below their season average of 0.526). Miami, on the other hand, did a terrific job of making free throws (15-17; 88.2 percent). San Antonio received a boost from LaMarcus Aldridge, who finished with 17 points and 10 rebounds. Meanwhile, Kelly Olynyk played a key role for Miami with 14 points, seven rebounds and five assists.

From an effective field goal percentage perspective, San Antonio should have a considerable advantage. The Spurs defense ranks fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.503), while the Miami offense is ranked 15th in effective field goal percentage (0.516). Additionally, the Heat, who rank 27th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.172), could struggle to get to the line against the Spurs, who rank third in opponents’ FTA rate (0.163).

Of the Heat’s 23 games, 13 have finished under the total. Miami comes into the game with records of 11-12 straight up (SU) and 8-13-2 against the spread (ATS).

Games featuring the Spurs also have a tendency to go under the O/U total (62.5 percent). Moreover, San Antonio owns records of 16-8 SU and 12-10-2 ATS.

In their first matchup this year, Aldridge led the Spurs to a 117-100 victory. He scored a game-high 31 points. The two teams combined to put up 217 points, which was well over the projected point total of 196.5, and San Antonio covered as a 3-point favorite. The Spurs’ 22.2 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over the Heat, who had a mark of 10.0.

Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs Betting Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Spurs, ATS Winner – Spurs, O/U – Under

Notes

Betting Notes:

The Heat rank 22nd in points in the paint per game (41.1) while the Spurs rank 25th (40.8).

San Antonio ranks sixth in second chance points per game (13.9) while Miami ranks 28th (9.7).

The Spurs rank 10th in assists per game (23.0) while the Heat rank 25th (20.8).

San Antonio ranks 12th in steals allowed per game (7.8) while Miami ranks 26th (8.7).

San Antonio ranks 20th in fast break points per game (9.2) while Miami ranks 27th (7.5).

The Heat rank fourth in three pointers attempted per game (32.6) while the Spurs rank 24th (25.0).

The Spurs rank second in blocks per game (6.2) while the Heat rank 13th (4.9).

San Antonio averages 16.4 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 19th in the NBA. Miami ranks 22nd in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.3).

San Antonio ranks fifth in rebounds allowed per game (41.5) while Miami ranks 22nd (44.3).

Miami is 7-3 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while San Antonio is 11-4.

When reaching the century mark, the Heat are 8-4 and the Spurs are 11-0.

Miami is 6-6 ATS on the road, while San Antonio is 8-4-1 ATS at home.

The total has gone over in 7 of the Spurs’ 13 home games, while 8 of the Heat’s 12 road games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

The Spurs are 2-2-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 1-4.

In their last five games, San Antonio has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Miami has 4 unders and 1 push.

During their last five games, the Spurs have scored an average of 99.4 points per game (1.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 93.0 points per game (4.0 below their season average).

The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 11.2, up from 3.7 for the season.

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