Last Updated: 2019-11-08
The Miami Heat (6-2) will attempt to put an end to the six-game winning streak of Los Angeles when they head to Staples Center to meet the Lakers (6-1). The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 215.5 points with Los Angeles set as an 8-point favorite. Action gets underway at 10:30 p.m. ET on Friday, November 8, 2019, and it can be seen on NBATV.
Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers Odds Preview
The Heat defeated the Phoenix Suns in their last outing, 124-108, despite being 4.5-point underdogs. Jimmy Butler was the game’s leading scorer with 34 points on 11-for-16 shooting. The Heat had a fantastic effective field goal percentage of 0.640 (above their season average of 0.539) and had a turnover percentage of 12.3 (better than their season average of 15.3). The two teams combined to put up 232 points, which was well over the O/U total of 210.5.
In the Lakers’ last outing, they topped the Chicago Bulls, 118-112, but they failed to cover as 7-point favorites. Los Angeles rallied around LeBron James, who racked up 30 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds. This gave him his second triple-double of the year. Los Angeles played a nearly perfect game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.5 (above their season average of 19.6) and a free throw rate of 0.185 (matching their season average). Chicago was 15.9 and 0.141, respectively, for those same stats. The two squads combined to record 230 points, which finished well over the O/U total of 214.5.
The Lakers won both contests against the Heat last season. In the most recent matchup, Los Angeles won 108-105. The Lakers played a nearly perfect game. They had a turnover percentage of 10.8 and a free throw rate of 0.133. For those same stats, the Heat were 14.6 and 0.106, respectively.
Games including these teams have typically finished under the projected point total. Miami games have finished under 57.1 percent of the time, while Los Angeles games have finished under 57.1 percent of the time. The Lakers come into this game with a clear advantage in terms of straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS, while the Heat are 6-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS.
It will be a matchup of conflicting paces as the fast-breaking Lakers will look to push the slower-paced Heat. Since last season, the Lakers rank third in possessions per game while the Heat are 23rd.
Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers Free Prediction
Prediction: SU Winner – Lakers, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
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Betting Notes (2018-Present):
The Heat rank second in points allowed in the paint per game (42.8) while the Lakers rank 17th (49.7).
Miami averages 32.5 three pointers per game, which ranks 13th in the league. Los Angeles ranks 24th in three pointers allowed per game (33.7).
Miami ranks seventh in second chance points per game (13.9) while Los Angeles ranks 22nd in second chance points allowed per game (13.9).
Miami averages 5.6 blocks per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. Los Angeles ranks 15th in blocks allowed per game (5.0).
In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Miami is 24-3 and Los Angeles is 10-0.
When scoring more than 100 points, the Heat are 41-24 and the Lakers are 41-36.
The Heat rank 13th in steals per game (7.9) while the Lakers rank 26th in steals allowed per game (8.3).
Los Angeles ranks second in fast break points per game (19.0) while Miami ranks 29th (10.1).
The Heat rank eighth in rebounds allowed per game (44.0) while the Lakers rank 26th (46.8).
The Lakers rank 12th in points off turnovers per game (16.9) while the Heat rank 23rd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.4).
Miami ranks fifth in assists allowed per game (23.4) while Los Angeles ranks 21st (24.8).