Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors ATS Odds Pick 02/10/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

 
Sunday, 02/10/2019 at 08:35 pm MIAMI (25-29) at GOLDEN STATE (40-15)
Expanded Matchup Game Center Bet Now Results Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics
Teams Line PF PA SU ATS O/U/P FG% FT% 3PT% FG% FT% 3PT%
549MIAMI 220 105.3 105.8 25-29 27-26-1 27-26-1 44.5% 68.8% 35.2% 44.5% 76.2% 36.2%
550GOLDEN STATE -14 119.1 111.5 40-15 24-30-1 30-25-0 49.3% 81.4% 38.6% 44.7% 76% 34.8%

Last Updated: 2019-02-10

The Golden State Warriors (39-15), the NBA’s top scoring team, will clash against the Miami Heat (25-28) at ORACLE Arena. Golden State opened as a 14.5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 222 points. Action gets underway at 8:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 10, 2019, and it can be seen on NBATV.

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Odds Preview

The last time the Heat played, they were beaten by the Sacramento Kings, 102-96. They failed to cover as 3.5-point underdogs. Miami’s Hassan Whiteside had a solid performance, contributing 17 points and 19 rebounds. Sacramento did an excellent job of converting from the charity stripe (19-25; 76.0 percent). Miami, meanwhile, had a better offensive rebounding percentage (23.4 vs. 20.8). The two teams combined to score 198 points, which finished well under the O/U total of 220.5.

Although the Warriors beat the Phoenix Suns in their last contest, 117-107, they failed to cover as 17-point favorites. With 25 points on 9-for-17 shooting, Klay Thompson was Golden State’s high scorer. The Warriors held the Suns to an effective field goal percentage of 0.416 (below their season average of 0.515) and had a free throw rate of 0.309 (above their season average of 0.195). Combined, the two teams scored 224 points, which finished under the O/U total of 229.5.

This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Warriors won both meetings played against each other last season. In the last game, Golden State won 123-95. The Warriors dominated every facet of the game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 23.3 and a solid turnover percentage of 8.7. The Heat had marks of 12.8 and 11.1, respectively, for those same stats.

Of Miami’s 53 games, 26 have finished over the projected point total, while 29 of Golden State’s 54 games have finished over the O/U total. The Warriors have the superior straight up (SU) record (39-15 vs. 25-28), but the Heat have been superior against the spread (ATS) (26-26-1 vs. 24-29-1).

Looking at effective field goal percentage, this appears to be a matchup of two heavyweights. The sweet-shooting Golden State offense ranks first in the league in that metric at 0.563, while the elite Miami defense is ranked second in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.507).

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction

Free Prediction: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Warriors, O/U – Under

Notes

Betting Notes:

The Warriors rank first in blocks allowed per game (3.5) while the Heat rank 14th (5.0).

Miami ranks 16th in points in the paint per game (48.2) while Golden State ranks 28th (43.1).

Golden State scores 17.0 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 13th in the NBA. Miami ranks 26th in points off turnovers given up (18.0 per game).

Miami is 16-10 ATS on the road with 13 unders, 12 overs and 1 push.

At home, Golden State is 11-15-1 ATS with 15 unders and 12 overs.

In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Miami is 15-3 and Golden State is 6-0.

When reaching the century mark, the Heat are 23-14 and the Warriors are 39-10.

The Heat average 14.5 second chance points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Warriors rank 19th in second chance points allowed per game (13.8).

Golden State ranks second in fast break points per game (19.6) while Miami ranks 28th (9.7).

The Warriors rank first in assists per game (29.6) while the Heat rank 19th (23.6).

The Warriors rank fifth in rebounds allowed per game (43.3) while the Heat rank 11th (44.1).

Miami ranks 11th in three pointers allowed per game (30.6) while Golden State ranks 28th (33.3).

Bettings Trends:

Golden State is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in its last five games.

Over its past five outings, Miami is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.

The Warriors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 17.2, up from 7.7 for the season.

During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 98.6 points per game (6.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 105.6 points per game (0.1 above their season average).

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