Last Updated: 2019-11-05
Expect a defensive struggle when the Miami Heat (5-1) and Denver Nuggets (4-2) face off at Pepsi Center. The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 209 points with Denver opening as a 5-point favorite. Action starts at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 5, 2019, and it can be seen on Altitude 2 Sports.
Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets Betting Preview
In the Heat’s last game, they easily got past the Houston Rockets, 129-100, despite being 3-point underdogs. With 18 points, nine assists and seven rebounds, Miami’s Jimmy Butler put together a solid game. Miami played a nearly flawless game. They had a turnover percentage of 13.2 (better than their season average of 16.4) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 12.8 (below their season average of 22.7). Houston put up marks of 19.2 and 8.9, respectively, for those same stats. The two teams combined to score 229 points, which came in under the projected point total of 234.
The Nuggets come into this game after topping the Orlando Magic, 91-87, resulting in a push. Denver was led by Nikola Jokic, who had 20 points and seven rebounds. The Nuggets knocked down 28 of their 39 free throws (71.8 percent), while the Magic had a turnover percentage of 14.2 (above their season average of 11.2). The two squads combined to put up 178 points, which came in well under the O/U total of 199.5.
The Nuggets won both contests against the Heat last season. In the last game, Denver won 103-87. The Nuggets dominated every stat category in the game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 20.0 and a turnover percentage of 13.7. The Heat were 16.7 and 15.2, respectively, for those same stats.
Of Miami’s 6 games, three have finished over the O/U total, while 5 of Denver’s 6 games have finished under the projected point total. The Heat hold a sizable advantage in both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS, while the Nuggets are 4-2 SU and 2-3-1 ATS.
Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams face off. Denver ranks 28th in possessions per game (99.9) and Miami is 23rd (101.0) dating back to the 2018-19 season.
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Odds Prediction
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
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Betting Notes (2018-Present):
The Nuggets rank fourth in points in the paint per game (51.4) while the Heat rank 16th (48.9).
Denver ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (43.2) while Miami ranks ninth (44.1).
Denver ranks fourth in assists per game (26.5) while Miami ranks 16th (24.5).
In games where they allow below 100 points, Miami is 24-3 and Denver is 30-3.
The Nuggets are 59-26 when they score over 100 points, while the Heat are 40-24.
The Nuggets rank 18th in fast break points per game (12.2) while the Heat rank 29th (10.1).
Denver ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.2) while Miami ranks 23rd (17.5).
The Heat rank fourth in blocks per game (5.6) while the Nuggets rank 23rd (4.5).
The Nuggets rank 18th in three pointers attempted per game (30.8) while the Heat rank 23rd in three pointers allowed per game (33.7).
Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (15.5) while Miami ranks 19th in second chance points allowed per game (13.7).