The Denver Nuggets (37-18) can prolong a five-game home winning streak when they meet the Miami Heat (25-29) at Pepsi Center. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on Monday, February 11, 2019, and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets Free Preview
The Heat lost a tough one against the Golden State Warriors in their last outing, 120-118, but were able to cover as 3.5-point underdogs. Josh Richardson had a solid performance for Miami, leading the team in scoring with 37 points on 14-for-22 shooting. Golden State did an excellent job of converting from the free throw line (19-26; 73.1 percent). Miami, meanwhile, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 42.0 (above their season average of 25.4). The two teams combined to score 238 points, which finished well over the O/U total of 220.5.
In the Nuggets’ last game, they were defeated by the Philadelphia 76ers, 117-110, and failed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. With 27 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists, Nikola Jokic led the way for Denver with his 10th triple-double of the year. Philadelphia did a great job of making free throws (29-32; 90.6 percent). Denver, on the other hand, forced the 76ers into a turnover percentage of 15.6 (above the 11.9 mark opponents have averaged against Denver this season). Combined, the two teams scored 227 points, which finished just under the O/U total of 229.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams square off. Denver currently ranks 28th in possessions per game (100.0) and Miami is 24th (100.7).
Of Miami’s 53 games that accepted bets, 26 have finished over the O/U total, while 28 of Denver’s 55 games have finished over the projected point total. The Nuggets have the superior straight up (SU) record (37-18 vs. 25-29) and a narrow edge against the spread (ATS) (29-26 vs. 26-26-1).
These two clubs have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to score 202 points, which was under the projected point total of 209.5. The Nuggets won 103-99, covering as 2-point underdogs. Denver had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (34.1 vs. 20.5). Miami, meanwhile, had a much better turnover percentage (6.0 vs. 14.5). Jokic played a huge role in the victory, recording a triple-double with 29 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists.
Heat at Nuggets Odds Prediction
Free Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Denver ranks second in second chance points per game (15.5) while Miami ranks 19th in second chance points allowed per game (13.8).
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.7) while Miami ranks 10th (43.9).
The Nuggets average 7.7 steals per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. The Heat rank 18th in steals allowed per game (7.8).
Miami is 16-10 ATS on the road, while Denver is 19-8 ATS at home.
Denver is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in its last five games.
Over its past five outings, Miami is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
The Nuggets have been outscored by an average of 4.6 points in their last five games. For the season, Denver has defeated opponents by an average of 4.7 points.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 104.4 points per game (0.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 108.6 points per game (2.8 above their season average).