The Dallas Mavericks (26-30) will be at home in the American Airlines Center when they challenge the Miami Heat (25-30). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 208 points with Dallas set as a 2.5-point favorite. Action starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 13, 2019.
Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds Preview
The Heat fell to the Denver Nuggets in their last game, 103-87. They failed to cover as 9.5-point underdogs. James Johnson had a good game for Miami, finishing with 14 points and six rebounds. Denver’s 20.0 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over Miami, who had a rate of 16.7. The Nuggets’ mark was below their season average of 27.4, while the Heat’s was below their season average of 25.8. The two teams combined to score 190 points, which came in well under the projected point total of 212.
In the Mavericks’ previous game, they were topped by the Houston Rockets, 120-104, and were not able to cover as 11-point underdogs. Luka Doncic was Dallas’ high scorer with 21 points on 7-for-17 shooting. Houston held the Mavericks to an offensive rebounding percentage of 9.4 (below their season average of 23.7). Dallas, meanwhile, did a fantastic job of getting to and converting from the charity stripe (21-27; 77.8 percent). The two teams collectively scored 224 points, which came in just over the O/U total of 223.5.
Dallas might have a difficult time scoring as they square off against one of the NBA’s best defenses. Miami ranks eighth in defensive efficiency while the Mavericks rank 20th in offensive efficiency.
Of Miami’s 55 games, 27 have finished over the O/U total, while 31 of Dallas’ 56 games have finished under the O/U total. Both teams have mediocre straight up (SU) records (25-30 for Miami; 26-30 for Dallas), but the Mavericks have the edge against the spread (ATS). Dallas is 35-21 ATS, while the Heat are 27-27-1.
This is the first time these teams will meet this year, after the Heat won both meetings last season. In the last contest, Miami won 95-88. The Heat played a nearly perfect game. They had an effective field goal percentage of 0.533 and a free throw rate of 0.200. The Mavericks were 0.430 and 0.163, respectively, for those same stats.
Heat vs. Mavericks Free Prediction
NBA Tip: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
The Mavericks rank fourth in three pointers attempted per game (35.2) while the Heat rank 13th (33.1).
Miami ranks 18th in steals allowed per game (7.7) while Dallas ranks 25th (8.4).
Dallas ranks 18th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.1) while Miami ranks 27th (18.0).
Miami ranks seventh in rebounds per game (46.7) while Dallas ranks 10th in rebounds allowed per game (43.9).
Miami is 17-11 ATS on the road with 14 unders, 13 overs and 1 push.
At home, Dallas is 20-8 ATS with 16 unders and 12 overs.
When holding opponents under 100 points, Miami is 15-3 and Dallas is 10-3.
The Mavericks are 25-24 when they score above 100 points, while the Heat are 23-15.
The Heat rank third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.9) while the Mavericks rank 11th (48.0).
Miami ranks fifth in blocks per game (5.7) while Dallas ranks 26th (4.4).
The Heat rank 10th in fast break points allowed per game (12.7) while the Mavericks rank 29th (17.1).
The Heat rank sixth in second chance points per game (14.4) while the Mavericks rank 12th in second chance points allowed per game (12.8).
Miami ranks second in assists allowed per game (22.7) while Dallas ranks 12th (24.0).
Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in its last five games.
Across its last five outings, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
The Mavericks have been outscored by an average of 2.2 points in their last five games. On the season, Dallas has defeated opponents by an average of 0.2 points.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 101.4 points per game (3.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 105.6 points per game (0.1 below their season average).