Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Odds Pick 12/14/19

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The Dallas Mavericks (17-7) will be at home in the American Airlines Center when they square off against the Miami Heat (18-7). Dallas is a 7-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 215.5 points. Action gets underway at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 14, 2019, and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Southwest.

Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks Free Preview

The last time the Heat played, they lost a close one to the Los Angeles Lakers, 113-110, despite being 8.5-point favorites. Miami’s Bam Adebayo had a solid game, putting up 12 points, 12 rebounds and five assists. Los Angeles had an offensive rebounding percentage of 32.6 (above their season average of 23.3). Miami, on the other hand, had a turnover percentage of 7.6 (better than their season average of 14.7). The two teams combined to score 223 points, which was over the O/U total of 218.5.

The Mavericks hope to maintain momentum after covering the 6.5-point spread against the Detroit Pistons in their last game, 122-111. Dallas’ Luka Doncic played a massive role in the victory, registering 41 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists on his way to his seventh triple-double this year. Dallas dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a solid offensive rebounding percentage of 27.5 (above their season average of 24.3) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.602 (above their season average of 0.547). For those same stats, Detroit was 10.9 and 0.534, respectively. Combined, the two teams scored 233 points, which was well over the projected point total of 217.

Based on historical performance heading into this one, ball security could play a significant role in this meeting. Dallas commits the fewest miscues in the NBA (turnover percentage of 11.9 percent), while the disruptive defense of Miami forces the fifth-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.1 percent). Furthermore, the Heat, who rank second in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.237), will clash against the Mavericks, who rank fourth in opponents’ FTA rate (0.170).

Of Miami’s 24 games that accepted bets, 12 have finished over the O/U total, while 15 of Dallas’ 24 games have finished over the projected point total. Both teams have solid straight up (SU) records (18-7 for Miami; 17-7 for Dallas), but the Mavericks have the advantage against the spread (ATS). Dallas is 15-9 ATS, while the Heat are 14-8-2.

This is the first time these teams will go head-to-head this year, after the Heat won both contests last season. In the last contest, Miami won 105-99. The Heat played a nearly perfect game. They had a free throw rate of 0.225 and a great turnover percentage of 9.0. The Mavericks had marks of 0.120 and 11.6, respectively, for those same stats.

Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks Prediction

NBA Tip: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over

Notes

Betting Notes:

The Mavericks rank third in second chance points per game (15.3) while the Heat rank 21st (12.5).

Dallas averages 24.4 assists per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. Miami ranks 14th in assists allowed per game (23.9).

Dallas ranks third in rebounds per game (47.9) while Miami ranks 17th (44.9).

On the road, Miami is 6-6-1 ATS with 7 unders, 5 overs and 1 push.

Dallas is 6-7 ATS at home with 8 overs and 5 unders.

When allowing less than 100 points, Dallas is 3-0 and Miami is 4-1.

When scoring more than 100 points, the Mavericks are 17-6 and the Heat are 18-3.

The Mavericks rank 19th in fast break points per game (12.1) while the Heat rank 25th (11.0).

Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (40.7) while Miami ranks 27th in three pointers allowed per game (37.6).

The Mavericks rank fifth in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.2) while the Heat rank 28th (19.4).

The Mavericks rank second in blocks allowed per game (3.6) while the Heat rank third (4.1).

Miami ranks seventh in steals per game (8.4) while Dallas ranks 27th (6.4).

Bettings Trends:

Dallas is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in its last five games.

Over its past five games, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.

The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 16.2, up from 9.7 for the season.

During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 112.0 points per game (0.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 110.8 points per game (4.4 above their season average).

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