At 7:30 ET, the Miami Heat will travel to take on the Dallas Mavericks in a non-conference matchup. The Mavericks (-193) are favored by 4.5 points over the Heat (+159) in a game that will be played at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.

Miami (35-26) is currently 6th in the Eastern Conference and 2nd in the Southeast Division. They come into tonight’s game on a 2-game winning streak. Dallas (34-28) is 8th in the Western Conference and 2nd in the Southwest Division. They have lost their last three games.


The Pick: Miami Heat +4.5

This game will be played at American Airlines Center at 7:30 ET on Thursday, March 7th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 118-115 in favor of the Mavericks.
  • Our projections have Luka Doncic finishing with Luka Doncic points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Mavericks finishing with a field goal percentage of 49.2% and knocking down 18 threes.

Are the Heat Ready for a Road Win?

The Heat have an O/U record of 24-37 this season, and the over has hit in their last two games. Today’s O/U line is set at 231.5, and their games have averaged 220.7 points per game this season.

Miami’s ATS record for the season is 29-29, and they have failed to cover in their last two games. On the road, they are 17-11 vs. the spread, and they have covered in their last six road games.

In the Eastern Conference, the Heat are currently in 6th place with a record of 35-26. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 23-16 and 12-10 in non-conference games.

Miami’s last game was a 118-110 win over the Pistons. They were favored by 11 points in that game and are 15-17 ATS as the favorite this season. The O/U line for that game was 217.5.

On the season, the Heat have been the underdog in 26 of their 61 games. They are 10-16 straight-up as the underdog and 14-12 vs. the spread. Currently, they are 4.5-point underdogs vs. the Mavericks.

Heading into their game against the Mavericks, the Heat are 27th in the NBA in scoring at 110.8 points per game. In terms of pace, Miami is 29th in the league at 96.2 possessions per game.

So far, the Heat have outscored the NBA scoring average in just 36.1% of their games this season. In terms of field goal percentage, Miami is 23rd in the league at 46%.

When it comes to their three-point shooting, the Heat are 7th in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage at 37%. However, they are just 18th in three-pointers made per game.

In the current season, the Heat defense has excelled, sitting 6th in the NBA by allowing 109.9 points per game. When it comes to defending inside the arc, the Heat squad is permitting opposing teams to shoot at a clip of 55.2% inside the arc, and they’re also giving up 36.3% from downtown.

Can the Mavericks Pull Off a Home Win?

Dallas is 34-28 this season and is currently 8th in the Western Conference. In games against other Western Conference teams, they are 21-18 compared to 13-10 against the East.

The Mavericks are favored by 4.5 points today and have gone 25-11 as the favorite this season. As the favorite, they are 21-15 against the spread, and their average scoring margin in these games is +5.2.

In their last three games, the Mavericks have gone 0-3 straight up and ATS. In their most recent game, they lost to the Pacers by a score of 137-120. The O/U line for that game was 247.5 points.

This season, the average O/U line in Mavericks games is 236.3, and their games have averaged a combined 237 points. Dallas has a 32-30 O/U record for the season.

In their last game, the Mavericks were favored by 5.5 points but lost to the Pacers by 17. This was their second straight ATS loss as the favorite.

This season, the Mavericks have been an excellent three-point shooting team, ranking 3rd in the NBA in three-pointers made per game at 14.9. Overall, they are 11th in three-point shooting percentage at 37%. At home, the Mavericks are averaging 120.3 points per game, which is 8th in the NBA.

One area where the Mavericks have struggled is in two-point shooting, as they are 28th in the league in two-point attempts per game. However, they are 7th in two-point shooting percentage at 56%. Overall, the Mavericks are 12th in field goal percentage at 48%.

When it comes to pace, the Mavericks are 12th in the NBA at 99.7 possessions per game. In terms of offensive rebounding, they are 24th in the league at 9.8 per game. In terms of assists, the Mavericks are 22nd in the NBA at 25.2 per game.

At present, the Mavericks’ defense is ranked 24th, allowing 118.3 points per game. In the terms of takeaways, Mavericks are causing 11.9 turnovers per game, ranking 5th in the league. They also enter the matchup ranked 23rd in rejections, averaging 4.6 blocked shots each game.