Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Betting Pick 12/04/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-12-04

The Boston Celtics (14-5) can lengthen a seven-game home winning streak when they square off with the Miami Heat (15-5) at TD Garden. The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 213 points with Boston set as a 5.5-point favorite. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 4, 2019.

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Free Preview

The Heat were victorious over the Toronto Raptors in their last matchup, 121-110, covering as 4.5-point favorites. With 22 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists, Jimmy Butler led the way for Miami with his zeroth triple-double this season. Miami dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 20.4 (below their season average of 22.4) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.530 (below their season average of 0.553). For those same stats, Toronto recorded marks of 16.7 and 0.445, respectively. The two teams combined to score 231 points, which finished well over the O/U total of 215.

In the Celtics’ previous game, they covered the 7.5-point spread against the New York Knicks, 113-104. Boston rallied around Jayson Tatum, who was the game’s high scorer with 30 points on 10-for-23 shooting. Boston dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had an absurd offensive rebounding percentage of 34.0 (above their season average of 22.9) and a turnover percentage of 11.2 (worse than their season average of 11.0). New York was 22.2 and 13.2, respectively, for those same stats. The two clubs collectively scored 217 points, which came in over the projected point total of 208.5.

Based on each team’s statistical profile, ball protection could play an integral role in this matchup. Boston commits the second-fewest miscues in the NBA (turnover percentage of 12.2 percent), while the gambling defense of Miami forces the second-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.7 percent).

Of Miami’s 19 games with betting action, nine have finished over the O/U total, while 11 of Boston’s 19 games have finished under the projected point total. Both teams have very similar records straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). The Heat are 15-5 SU and 12-5-2 ATS, while the Celtics are 14-5 SU and 11-7-1 ATS.

This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Celtics won three out of four matchups played against each other last season. In the most recent matchup, Boston won 112-102. The Celtics dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an extraordinary free throw rate of 0.338 and a turnover percentage of 10.5. The Heat put up marks of 0.126 and 12.6, respectively, for those same stats.

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Free Prediction

Prediction: SU Winner – Celtics, ATS Winner – Celtics, O/U – Under

Notes

Betting Notes:

Miami ranks second in blocks allowed per game (3.7) while Boston ranks 25th (6.0).

Boston ranks second in points allowed in the paint per game (41.5) while Miami ranks eighth (45.2).

Miami is 5-5-1 ATS on the road, while Boston is 4-3 ATS at home.

Bettings Trends:

Boston is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in its last five games.

Across its last five outings, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push.

The Celtics’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.4, down from 6.3 for the season.

During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 115.4 points per game (3.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 107.6 points per game (2.3 above their season average).

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