Last Updated: 2017-11-10
NFL Sunday is quickly approaching and once again it’s time to take a look at the NFL Betting Market, and see which teams the Professional bettors are backing this week. Last week wasn’t a great one for the sharps, with our identified plays going 1-2.
The NY Giants produced the first loss of the day, closing as a 6-point underdog, and getting absolutely embarrassed by the Rams, 51-17. Some sharp money definitely ended up playing back on the Rams to drive this back up through 4 onto 6, and I was left wondering if this wasn’t a situation where the Pros were betting this number down at lower limits only to come back on the other side when the limits were higher later on in the week. The Rams were an 80 percent consensus play, so it very well could have been overwhelming public support helping to drive it, but the movement on the Giants was fishy to say the least and inconsistent with where Professional NFL Power Ratings numbers would’ve had this game.
The Jags, on the other hand, came through in a big way for the sharps, making easy work of the Bengals and winning 23-7 as an eventual 5.5 to 6-point favorite, getting bet up to as high as 7 at some shops. The Seahawks, getting bet all the way through 7 to as high as 9 by kickoff, laid an egg and lost outright, 17-14, to the Redskins and bringing our record to 1-2.
It was another week in which the public thrived in the NFL, usually translating into a tough week for bookmakers as well as sharp bettors. If you would’ve taken the Hawks and Jags early as suggested, we would’ve at least got you some line value, and in the long run, line value is really the only way to assure positive expected value. It’s onward to week 10, though, where we’ll once again peruse the off-shore betting market and see what kind of value we can find with the sharp bettors.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Off-shore opening line: CHI -5 -110
Consensus current line: CHI -6 -110
Off-shore Betting Consensus: CHI 62%
In a great situational spot for the Bears, coming off of a bye while GB is on a short week off of an embarrassing loss to the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football, Chicago has begun to take on a little bit of influential money early on in the week. The move isn’t overly significant by any means, but with several off-shore books willing to go onto a secondary key of 6, this isn’t all public action on the Bears. 5Dimes and Bovada have already gone to a solid 6 -110, while BetCris, Bookmaker, and BetDSI are up to 6, but with extra juice on Green Bay. Among the books that are still sitting at 5.5, Pinnacle and YouWager are juicing the Chicago side, an indication that a move to 6 may soon be in the cards. If you have access to one of the books such as BetOnline, Heritage, or Intertops charging a standard -110 on 5.5 I’d grab that ASAP, because with the sharp and public money on the same side here the 5.5’s that are out there may not last much longer.
LA Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Off-shore opening line: LAC 4 -112
Consensus current line: LAC 3.5 -110
Off-shore Betting Consensus: 50%
As has been the case this year in the NFL, sharp bettors are once again backing the team off of a bye, and here it’s the Chargers traveling to Jacksonville, who is off of a convincing win over the Cincinnati Bengals at home last week. With off-shore betting action split 50/50 down the middle thus far, this number has come down off of the secondary key of 4 down to 3.5 at most shops. With Bovada and Heritage being 2 of the few shops still at 4, we can see the sharp public split, as Pinnacle, BetCris, and the Greek have come down to 3.5, all charging a little extra juice on the Jags at this price. I would be hesitant to take the 3.5 at this point in the week, however, as though the action is evenly split, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the public eventually backs the Jags by kickoff, especially off of 2 straight wins in dominant fashion. Wait this one out, watch the odds screen closely, and see if some of those 4’s come back by game-time.
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
Off-shore opening line: CLE 12 -110
Consensus current line: CLE 11.5 -110
Off-shore Betting Consensus: 50%
It’s not easy to do, but that’s exactly why betting a winless team in the NFL at this time of the year, has historically been a profitable proposition. Fresh off of a bye to boot, the Pros are backing the Cleveland Browns here, as they travel to Detroit to take on the Lions, who just made easy work of the Packers in Green Bay on Monday night. Very similar to the Chargers-Jags, we have a 50/50 split with the sharps coming in on the road team catching points off of a bye. Opening at a consensus of 12 off-shore, most of these are gone, and those that remain – at books such as Bovada and BetDSI – are heavily juiced on the Browns. 5Dimes is the lone book posting a 13, but this is juiced at -130 on the Browns pretty much leaving it untouchable, while BetOnline at 12.5 -120 in the only shop at this number. Pinnacle is at the lower end of the market at 11 -105, further verifying the sharp lean towards the Browns in the marketplace. With the number sitting in a dead zone for the most part, there is no rush to get involved here at the current number. If you start to see this number trend closer to 10, you’ll definitely want to grab it before it gets to 10, but I’d be patient in case a 13 eventually popped with the late public action coming in on the Lions.
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