Los Angeles Lakers vs. Miami Heat – Game 4 Pick, Odds & Prediction – 10/6/20

The Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat continue their battle Tuesday night with Game 4 of the 2020 NBA Finals and things are heating up after Miami beat LA 115-104 in Game 3 this past Sunday. 

Now, the Lakers have a 2-1 lead and Game 4 will be a joy to watch. The NBA betting action goes on, too, so here’s the best betting pick for the Lakers versus Heat showdown along with all the key betting tips and trends.  

The Line

The Lakers are 7.5-point favorites on BetDSI, while their moneyline odds sit at -310. The Heat are +260 moneyline dogs with a total of 218.5 points. 

Injuries/Suspensions

Miami will be without Goran Dragic (foot), while Bam Adebayo (neck) is questionable to play after missing the previous two games. LA doesn’t have any serious injury worries. 

What’s at Stake?

Just 13 teams in NBA history managed to overcome a 3-1 deficit in the playoff series, and only the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers with LeBron James onwards did it in the NBA Finals, so the Heat don’t want to get into a 3-1 hole.

On the other side, LeBron and the Lakers should know that job is not done yet. 

The Spot

The Heat looked helpless in the first two contests of this series. However, they found a way to cope with the Lakers in Game 3 despite missing Dragic and Adebayo, so Sunday’s victory was a massive boost for Miami’s confidence. 

The Lakers, on the other side, should have learned a few lessons and will try to get momentum back on their side in Game 4. 

The Matchup

Anthony Davis was dominating the Heat through the first games of the series. He had 34 points and nine rebounds in the opener, and Davis posted 32 points along 14 boards in Game 2. However, he had a tough night on Sunday, taking just nine shots and finishing the clash with 15 points and five boards. 

LeBron James turned the ball over eight times after committing zero turnovers in Game 2, so the Lakers couldn’t expect to get anything from Sunday’s game. Markieff Morris and Kyle Kuzma combined for nine triples and 38 points off the bench, but that wasn’t enough against the resilient Heat. 

Jimmy Butler led the way for Miami with 40 points, 11 rebounds, and 13 dimes while shooting 14-for-20 from the field and 12-for-14 from the free-throw line. Five Heat players scored in double figures including Kelly Olynyk who posted 17 points and seven boards off the bench. 

Although they missed Bam Adebayo, the Heat somehow managed to deal with the Lakers on the defensive end. They will need more of the same in order to pull off another upset. 

Miami shot 51.2% from the field in Game 3 while outscoring the Lakers in the paint (52-34). That was another important factor in Miami’s victory, but the Heat continues to struggle on the glass. They allowed a whopping 27 offensive rebounds in the previous two games. 

The Bets

I got burned on Sunday, predicting the Lakers’ third straight win in the finals. The Heat really surprised me with their terrific defense, while they executed offensively like there was no pressure on their shoulders. 

Despite that performance, I expect the Lakers to gel the things and beat the Heat on Tuesday. However, I don’t feel comfortable with a 7.5-point spread. The Heat could easily keep it close, especially if Adebayo returns. 

Still, I think the Lakers are experienced enough to avoid another loss, so I’m buying a couple of points and taking the Lakers as 5.5-point favorites. LA won eight of its last 10 matchups with Miami but covered just five times in the process.