The 2022 MLB season goes on Tuesday, June 21, with 15 games around the leagues, including the National League showdown at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, so here’s the best Dodgers vs. Reds betting pick.
According to Bovada Sportsbook, the Dodgers open as firm -200 road favorites for Tuesday night’s opener of a three-game series in Ohio. Los Angeles shoots for its seventh straight victory over Cincinnati, and the Dodgers have already swept a four-game home set against the Reds in 2022.
The Dodgers are barely topping the NL West
The Los Angeles Dodgers fell to 40-25 on the season following Sunday’s 5-3 defeat at home to the Cleveland Guardians. They were still sitting atop of the NL West, only half a game ahead of the San Diego Padres, who just got swept by the Rockies in a three-game series at Coors Field in Denver.
The Dodgers dropped a three-game set against the Guardians. They’ve won just seven of their previous 18 games overall and are winless in three consecutive contests on the road. In the last couple of weeks, the Dodgers have recorded an underwhelming .224/.297/.372 triple-slash, while Mookie Bets landed on the injury list last Sunday with a cracked rib.
Tony Gonsolin will toe the slab Tuesday at Great American Ball Park and shoot for his fifth consecutive win. Over his previous four starts, the 28-year-old righty has surrendered only three earned runs on ten hits and four walks while punching out 23 across 24.1 innings of work. Gonsolin boasts an 8-0 record, 1.42 ERA, and 0.82 WHIP in 12 starts (63.1 innings) this season.
The Reds are sitting bottom of the NL Central
The Cincinnati Reds extended their losing streak to four games with a 6-3 home defeat to the Milwaukee Brewers this past Sunday. It was their eighth loss in the last 11 games overall and fifth in a row at Great American Ball Park, as the Reds remained bottom of the NL Central with a 23-43 record.
Cincinnati has recorded a solid .267/.335/.414 slash line in the last couple of weeks, but the Reds’ pitching staff has accounted for a 4.59 ERA in that stretch. Tyler Mahle will take the hill Tuesday, and the 27-year-old right-hander is 2-5 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 14 starts (74.2 innings) this season.
Mahle met the Dodgers on April 17, 2022, and took a loss in a heavy 9-1 defeat in LA. He surrendered a whopping seven earned runs across just 3.2 frames of work. The former seventh-round pick has impressed in his last four starts, allowing just four earned runs through 27.2 frames of work while posting a 36/7 K/BB ratio.
Trends:
LA Dodgers:
- 6-0 in the last six games against Cincinnati
- 7-1 in Tony Gonsolin’s last eight starts
Cincinnati:
- 3-8 in the last 11 games overall
- 0-5 in the last five games at home
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick
Tyler Mahle will have a tall task to extend his good run of form. Although the Dodgers’ offense has struggled in the last few weeks, it owns a terrific .363/.413/.472 slash line in 66 at-bats against Mahle. On the other side, the current Reds lineup has only four hits and a .575 OPS in 18 at-bats against Tony Gonsolin.
Even if Gonsolin starts to struggle, the Dodgers can lean on their bullpen, which has recorded a strong 2.84 ERA and 10.7 K/9 in its last 25.1 frames of work. On the other side, the Reds’ bullpen has a 4.55 ERA and 5.2 BB/9 in its last 27.2 innings.
Pick: Take Los Angeles Dodgers at -200
The Total:
Great American Ball Park ranks first in ESPN’s MLB Park Factors, but I lean toward the under in this matchup. Tyler Mahle can only do a better job than he did last time against the Dodgers, and I’ve already mentioned his good run of form. On the other side, Tony Gonsolin will dominate the Reds if he continues to pitch at a high level.
The under is 5-2 in the Dodgers’ last seven games overall, and it is 7-2 in their previous nine showings on the road. On the flip side, the total has gone over in five of the Reds’ last eight contests overall.
Pick: Go under 10.0 runs at -110
