Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres Free Pick 09/26/19

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Eric Hosmer and the San Diego Padres are set to do battle against the Los Angeles Dodgers at PETCO Park. Spectrum SportsNet LA will televise the action and the game gets underway at 3:40 p.m. ET.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres Odds

The Padres are 70-88 straight up (SU) and 72-85 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 20.5 units for moneyline bettors and 22.4 units ATS. San Diego has covered the spread only twice in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Dodgers are 102-56 SU and have gone 76-81 against the spread. They’re up 12.3 units for moneyline bettors, but have lost 7.9 units ATS. Los Angeles has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.

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Neither side has been an obvious over/under bet this season. San Diego games have a 74-74-9 over/under record in 2019. Los Angeles has an over/under record of 72-74-11.

Southpaw Clayton Kershaw will get the start for the visiting Dodgers. Kershaw is 15-5 with a 3.15 ERA and 181 strikeouts. He’s 2-0 with 25 strikeouts and a 3.12 ERA against San Diego this year (four starts).

The Padres are putting the ball in the hands of lefty Joey Lucchesi (10-9, 4.28 ERA), who’s got 152 strikeouts and 54 walks as well as a 1.24 WHIP. Lucchesi is 1-1 with 10 strikeouts and a 5.29 ERA across three starts against Los Angeles this year.

As a unit, San Diego’s pitching staff has allowed 4.9 runs per game overall this year. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.72, a WHIP of 1.29 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.8. The bullpen has a 4.58 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. In 72 games against divisional foes, Padres starters have an ERA of 5.40 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.07.

The San Diego offense has produced 4.3 runs per contest, including 4.3 per game against divisional foes and 3.0 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .182/.278/.285 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

First baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Manny Machado have led the Padres’ hitters this year. Hosmer is hitting .269/.315/.427 with 21 home runs, 97 RBIs and 71 runs scored, and Machado is hitting .252 with 30 homers, 82 RBIs and 79 runs.

In the visiting dugout, Los Angeles’ pitching staff allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starters own a 3.17 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 9.41 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.96, along with a K-per-9 of 9.42.

Dodgers hitters have slashed .258/.340/.473 on their way to 5.5 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).

First baseman Cody Bellinger and third baseman Justin Turner continue to lead Los Angeles’ hitters. Bellinger is hitting .301/.402/.623 with 46 home runs, 114 RBIs, 118 runs and 15 stolen bases, while Turner (.290/.372/.509) is up to 27 homers, 67 RBIs and 80 runs scored.

The Dodgers have lost 7.2 units and are 18-33 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 24 of those games, compared to 25 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Padres have lost 6.1 units and are 18-16 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 14 of those games, as opposed to 18 that’ve gone under.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Padres, ATS Winner – Dodgers, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Notes

Los Angeles has tallied 22 extra-base hits over its last five contests. San Diego has 10 XBH over its last five.

The Dodgers have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games, including 12 over their last five.

The Dodgers have a total OPS of .814 this season and an OPS of .790 against left-handed pitchers. The Padres’ OPS sits at .721 overall and .760 against southpaws.

San Diego has posted 13.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 15.0 over its last five.

The Padres have dropped five of their last six games SU.

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