Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos Betting Pick & Prediction 10/13/24
The Chargers are favored on the road with a money line of -158 as they take on the Broncos at 4:05 ET on Sunday, October 13th. The Chargers are favored by -3 on the road, and the over/under line is set at 35.5 points. The Broncos’ money line odds are +133 as they look to improve their record in this AFC West matchup. The game will be televised on CBS.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS DENVER BRONCOS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Denver Broncos +3
This game will be played at Empower Field at Mile High at 4:05 ET on Sunday, October 13th.
WHY BET THE DENVER BRONCOS:
- We have the Chargers winning this one by a score of 18 to 16
- Even though we like the Chargers to win, our ATS pick is to take the Broncos at +3
- We see this game finishing below the line of 35.5 points
Will The Chargers Pick Up A Win On The Road?
After starting the season with two straight wins, the Chargers have dropped two in a row, including a 17-10 home loss to the Chiefs in week 4. This leaves them at 2-2, putting them 3rd in the AFC West. Our projections give L.A. a 45.1% chance of making the playoffs and a 2.6% chance of winning the division. They rank 21st in our NFL power rankings heading into week 6.
Against the spread, the Chargers are 2-1-1, with both of their wins coming as the favorite. Their O/U record is 0-4, with their games averaging 29.5 points compared to a 39.1-point line. In week 4, the Chargers and Chiefs combined for 27 points, falling short of the 41.5-point O/U line.
Heading into week 6, the Chargers rank 24th in our offensive power rankings. They are 26th in the NFL in passing attempts per game (23.2) and 29th in passing yards, averaging 136 per game. Justin Herbert threw for 179 yards (16/27) and a touchdown in week 4 against the Chiefs, after passing for 125 yards in week 3 and 130 yards in week 2.
On the ground, the Chargers are 10th in rushing attempts and 9th in rushing yards, averaging 127.8 yards per game. J.K. Dobbins rushed for 32 yards on 14 carries in week 4, following a 44-yard performance in week 3 and a 131-yard game in week 2. The Chargers are 18th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion rate (36.4%).
The Chargers’ defense had three sacks and held the Chiefs to 17 points in their most recent game, but they still came out on the losing end of a 17-10 scoreline. Despite a good effort in getting to the quarterback, the Chargers’ run defense allowed 101 yards on 26 attempts (3.9 yards per attempt). In the passing game, they gave up 228 yards through the air, with Kansas City completing 65.5% of their passes. The Chargers struggled to get off the field, allowing the Chiefs to convert on 56.2% of their third down attempts.
Los Angeles’ defense did come up with one interception and limited the Chiefs to 329 total yards, but they will be looking to improve on their third down defense and overall run defense in their next game.
Will The Broncos Win At Home Over The Chargers?
After starting the season with two straight losses, the Broncos have bounced back with three consecutive wins, including a 34-18 victory over the Raiders in week 5. Denver was a 3-point favorite in that game and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 4-1. They’ve covered in three straight games, including two wins as underdogs against the Jets and Buccaneers.
Despite their winning streak, the Broncos rank 28th in our NFL power rankings and have a 34.2% chance of making the playoffs. Their O/U record is 2-3, with their games averaging 33.8 points per game. The O/U line for their week 5 matchup with the Raiders was 36.5 points, and the teams combined for 52.
Heading into week 6, the Broncos sit 29th in our offensive power rankings. They are 21st in the NFL in points per game (19.2) and 26th in yards per game (270.6). Denver ranks 11th in passing attempts per game but is 26th in passing yards, averaging 163.8 per game. On the ground, they are 16th in rushing attempts and 21st in rushing yards per game (106.8). The Broncos have struggled on 3rd down, converting just 24.6% of their attempts, which ranks 28th in the league. However, they are 13th in red zone conversion percentage and 6th in red zone attempts.
Bo Nix had a strong performance in week 5, posting a passer rating of 117 with 206 yards and 2 touchdowns on 19/27 passing. Javonte Williams led the team in rushing with 61 yards on 13 carries and also had 5 catches for 50 yards. Denver scored 14 points in the 4th quarter against the Raiders, after scoring just 3 points in the 4th quarter combined over the previous two games.
In their 34-18 win over the Raiders, the Broncos’ defense came up with three interceptions and held Las Vegas to 46.7% on third down. They allowed just 215 passing yards on 22 completions, forcing the Raiders to turn to the running game, where they allowed 115 yards on 25 attempts. The Broncos also came away with three sacks and held the Raiders to 18 points.
Denver’s defense won the quarterback hit battle by +2 but did lose the tackles for loss differential. Their secondary played well, limiting the Raiders to a 59.5% completion percentage and allowing just one passing touchdown.