Liberty vs. BYU College Football Betting Pick 11/9/19


In a battle of two schools that like to keep the ball on the ground, Cougars (-17) are gearing up to welcome the Liberty Flames to Byu. Fans can catch the action live on ESPNU and kickoff for this pivotal IndFBS matchup is pegged for 7:30 p.m. ET. These two IndFBS foes did not get a chance to face each other in 2018.

Liberty vs. BYU Betting Predictions 11/9/2019

The Flames enter into this Saturday IndFBS game as a big underdog and are currently getting 17 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently need to put up $1,400 to win $100 back on the Cougars (-1400). The Flames are getting +780 moneyline odds. If one side gets out in front early it will create a worthwhile in-game betting scenario. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 58.5 points.

The line originally opened at -18 and the game’s over/under was initially 58, so it appears that the sharp action is siding with the Flames.

The Flames are 4-5 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 0.5 units so far. The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 4-5.

The Cougars have gained 1.6 units this season. The team is 4-4 ATS and the over has hit in five of its games.

The Flames are 6-3 straight up (SU), including 2-0 SU against IndFBS opponents. The Cougars are 4-4 SU overall and are also 0-0 SU in conference play.

The Flames are looking to keep things going after a solid 63-21 win over Massachusetts last week. The passing attack was sharp as Stephen Calvert completed 20-of-27 passes for 474 yards and four touchdowns. Joshua Mack (85 yards on 15 rush attempts) and Frankie Hickson (99 yards on 14 carries, three TDs) led the ground attack while Antonio Gandy-Golden (six receptions, 137 yards, one TD) and Demario Douglas (four catches, 85 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the win.

BYU just picked up a 42-14 win over Utah State. The team’s defensive unit allowed the Aggies to pass for 394 yards while rushing for 127 yards. Jordan Nathan was a bright spot in the loss, posting 133 yards and a score on seven catches for Utah State. As a group, the Cougars collectively completed 23-of-33 passes for 418 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Jaren Hall went 12-for-16 for 214 yards while Baylor Romney was 10-of-16 for 191 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Sione Finau (72 rushing yards on 15 attempts) and the signal-caller Hall (54 yards on seven carries, two TDs) led the running game while Lopini Katoa (four receptions, 129 yards) and Gunner Romney (four catches, 45 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

Each of these teams has a similar (50-50) run-pass ratio on the season. The Flames have produced 144 rush yards/game (including 202 per game against Independents (FBS) opponents) and have 18 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Cougars are putting up 134 rush yards per game and have 14 total rushing TDs.

The Flames offensive scheme has averaged 300 yards through the air overall (331 per game versus conference opposition) and has 21 passing TDs so far. The Cougars have recorded 279 pass yards per contest and have 10 total pass scores.

Defensively, Liberty has allowed opponents to run for an average of 196 yards and pass for 223 yards per game. The BYU D has allowed 213.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 206.0 yards per game on the ground. The Cougars are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.71 to opposing QBs, while the Flames have allowed a 6.22 ANY/A.

Calvert is up to 2,394 pass yards on the year. He’s connected on 157-of-251 attempts with 19 passing touchdowns and only three interceptions. Calvert has a sparkling 9.35 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 13.28 over the last two outings.

Baylor Romney has completed 16-of-26 passes for 264 yards, two TDs and one INT for BYU. His ANY/A sits at 9.30 for the season and 9.98 over his past two games.

Liberty Flames vs. BYU Cougars Free Pick

SU Winner – BYU, ATS Winner – BYU, O/U – Over


Betting Notes

The BYU offense has lost six fumbles this season while Liberty has lost eight.

The Liberty defensive unit has three times as many sacks as BYU this year (27 to nine).

Liberty has rushed for 5.1 yards per attempt over its past three games and 5.2 over its last two.

BYU has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.4 over its past two.

Liberty has won seven of its last eight games SU, with a 10-point loss to Rutgers on October 26th accounting for the only defeat over that span.

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