Don’t miss out on the NCAA showdown between the Flames and Bearkats. The game is starting at 7:30 ET on ESPN+, and it’s hosted by the Bearkats at Bernard G. Johnson Coliseum in Huntsville, TX. Get ready to place your bets! Liberty is favored by -4.5 in this Conference USA conference showdown. The game’s over/under is currently at 138.5 points.


The Pick: Sam Houston State Bearkats +4.5

This game will be played at Bernard G. Johnson Coliseum at 7:30 ET on Saturday, February 17th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 73-71 in favor of the Bearkats.
  • Not only will Sam Houston State pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +4.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 138.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 144 points.

Is a Road Win Possible for Liberty?

Liberty comes into this game with a record of 16-9 and has won three straight games. They are 5-5 in conference play and have gone 11-4 in non-conference games. On the road, the Flames are 2-5 compared to 11-4 at home.

For the season, Liberty has been favored in 19 of their 25 games, going 13-6 in those matchups. They are coming off a 65-62 win over Louisiana Tech and have gone 1-2 in their last three road games.

As the favorite this season, Liberty has an ATS record of 11-8. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Flames are 4-6 vs the spread. On the road, Liberty is just 1-6 ATS this year and their last 10 road ATS mark is 1-8-1.

On the season, the over/under record in Liberty games is 11-10-1 and today’s line of 138.5 is similar to the average over/under line in their games this year (137.2). Over their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2 and the average scoring total in those games is 133 points.

Liberty offense recently wrapped up a game with a total of 65 points against Louisiana Tech. In that game, they made 9/23 three-point attempts and achieved a field goal percentage of 47.2%. In terms of offense, the Flames have a season-long field goal percentage of 46%, putting them 99th in the NCAA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 58th in percentage and 10th in three-pointers made.

At this time, the Flames’ defense is positioned 17th in the country, permitting 63.9 points per game. On average, opposing teams are hitting 5.1 threes per game vs. Sam Houston State. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 28.0%.

Can the Bearkats Please their Home Crowd?

Sam Houston State enters this game as a 4.5-point underdog. They have a record of 14-11 this season and are 7-3 in conference play. The Bearkats have gone 8-2 at home compared to 5-9 on the road. Their average scoring margin at home is +8.0 compared to -6.3 on the road.

Recently, Sam Houston State has won six straight games at home. On the season, they have been the underdog in 10 games, going 2-8 in those contests. In their last game, they defeated FIU by a score of 70-56.

As the underdog this season, Sam Houston State has gone 4-6 vs. the spread. At home, their ATS mark is 5-5 and over their last 10 games as the underdog, they are 4-6. However, over their last 3 home games, the Bearkats are 2-1 vs. the spread.

Sam Houston State’s over/under record this season is 13-11 and the average over/under line in their games is 141.3. Today’s over/under line of 138.5 is lower than their season average and there have been 9 games with fewer points than today’s OU line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 133 points.

In their recent matchup, the Sam Houston State offense ended with 70 points against FIU. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 43.9% and made 9 threes. On offense, Sam Houston State has been struggling with their efficiency, coming into today’s game with a field goal percentgage of 41%. So far, they are 175th in free-throws made on a free throw shooting percentage of 71%.

Coming into today’s game, the Sam Houston State defense is giving up an average of 70.8 points per contest. So far, the Sam Houston State defense is giving up an average of 8.2 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 12.9 times per game (661st).