Las Vegas NFL Circa Million Weekly Recap: Week 9

Date | AuthorAdam Burke

Last Updated: 2019-11-05

Another week has come and gone in the inaugural Circa Sports Million with the beginning of the third quarter. The second-to-last four-week sprint for $143,750 started in Week 9 and 28 entrants are tied for the lead at 5-0, including CB Elite, who already won the first quarter prize.

These quarter prizes have revolutionized the football contest industry in Las Vegas. With a legitimate competitor to the Westgate SuperContest, it can only benefit the consumer. Competition has been a great thing across the country in terms of sports betting and the same holds true across these full-season pools.

MJTADE now leads the Circa Million with 32.5 points. The gap between first and 10th is just two points, which is important because only the top 10 places plus ties get paid in the Circa Million. We’ll likely see that change for next season, but there was originally expected to be an overlay with the prize pool because it was a guaranteed $1.5 million and organizers weren’t sure that they would get 1,500 sign-ups at $1000 a piece. They got that and then some.

In total, 1,875 entrants threw a hat in the ring and got a giveaway hat for their sign-up. For the vast majority of the field, that hat is all that they will win, much like the $1,500 t-shirt for the SuperContest. Everybody enters the contest with hopes of making the money. That was our hope, as it is every year.

Our margin for error is gone as far as the third quarter goes and our margin for error to cash in the full-season standings dwindles with each passing week. Nevertheless, the NFL cards keep coming and we keep putting our picks in. That’s all you can do in these contests. You keep swinging until they tell you that you can’t swing anymore.

We have two entries in the Circa Million, appropriately named BangTheBook.com-1 and BangTheBook.com-2. The -2 entry belongs to BangTheBook Radio host Adam Burke, who posted a 3-2 record to improve to 21-23-1 for the season. Last week’s 0-5 still looms large, as it effectively removed that entry from the full-season chase. The third quarter begins with a 3-2, which means that a 15-0 the rest of the way could very well be required, given that 17-3 and 17-2-1 have been the winning scores so far.

Adam’s winners came on the Panthers, Steelers, and Raiders, while the Vikings and Jaguars fell short. Seven points of CLV wasn’t enough on Minnesota. Imagine that. Stale numbers can usually be a positive in these contests, but Minnesota wound up being a negative and a trap door.

The -1 entry went 3-2. The Bills, Broncos, and Chargers all took care of their affairs, while the Jaguars and Buccaneers did not. Tampa Bay should have been a winner, which would have made for a strong 4-1 start and a lot of opportunities in the third quarter chase. The Vikings were swapped for the Chargers in the Circa, which wound up being the correct call. The -1 entry is now 26-17-2 for the season and just 3.5 points off of the top 10.

Here are the Week 9 and year-to-date results in the Circa Million:

Wins Losses Ties Win Percentage
Week 1 4097 4380 783 48.33%
Week 2 4844 4486 51.92%
Week 3 5442 3898 58.27%
Week 4 3978 5307 42.84%
Week 5 4903 4422 52.58%
Week 6 4350 4880 47.13%
Week 7 4370 4072 768 51.76%
Week 8 4762 4393 52.01%
Week 9 3891 5309 42.29%
YTD Totals 40637 41147 1551 49.85%

Yeesh. This week in the Circa Million was so bad that the field is now below 50% for the season. A 42.29% showing that included an 0-5 for the top-five consensus is the worst week of the year, narrowly beating out Week 4. It was a bad week for a lot of people last week.

The consensus, the most selected side in each game, came in at 5-9. The half-point difference in the Patriots and Ravens game from the SuperContest line did alter some opinions on the game, but only four more entrants fell on the right side than those that were wrong.

Here are the results, pick counts, and the consensus from Week 9 in the Circa Million:

1 49ers 127

2 Cardinals* (+10) 71

 

3 Texans 214

4 Jaguars (+1.5) 500 (consensus #5)

 

5 Bills* 424

6 Redskins (+9.5) 108

 

7 Panthers* 371

8 Titans (+3.5) 178

 

9 Eagles* 443

10 Bears (+4.5) 234

 

11 Chiefs* 89

12 Vikings (+2) 678 (consensus #1)

 

13 Jets 295

14 Dolphins* (+3) 134

 

15 Colts 528 (consensus #3)

16 Steelers* (+1) 298

 

17 Raiders* 421

18 Lions (+2) 279

 

19 Seahawks* 271

20 Buccaneers (+5.5) 486

 

21 Browns 525 (consensus #4)

22 Broncos* (+3.5) 175

 

23 Packers 663 (consensus #2)

24 Chargers* (+3.5) 291

 

25 Patriots 470

26 Ravens* (+3.5) 474

 

27 Cowboys 215

28 Giants* (+7) 238

 

Consensus record: 5-9

Top-five consensus record: 0-5

YTD consensus record: 69-64-1 (LAR/CAR Wk 1 same # picks)

YTD top-five consensus record: 20-23-2

Listen for host Adam Burke’s SuperContest/Circa Million thoughts for the BangTheBook.com-2 entry every Friday on BangTheBook Radio.

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