There are very few futures market offerings as cut and dry as the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
There are currently 22 names listed on the prop to win the award at BetOnline.ag, but you can count on one hand how many realistically have a chance to win it. Translation: this is not the time to be looking for deep longshots. Save the cute stuff for other propositions.
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is the sizable favorite, down from his +250 opener to +160. After that, it’s Los Angeles Rams running back Darrell Henderson and Washington Redskins quarterback Dwayne Haskins at 7-1 apiece. Oakland Raiders running back Josh Jacobs is right behind at 8-1, and after that, who really cares?
Sorry if our indifference to the rest of the field offends you, but past Jacobs, you’re literally throwing darts. Sure, longshots from Deebo Samuel to JJ Acrega-Whiteside could win it, but to bet on any of these types is pure guessing.
What’s not guesswork is the situations that the top offerings are in. There’s no doubt that Murray is the man in Arizona. He will be the unquestioned starter and given every chance to put up the numbers needed to justify his odds and win the award.
This means that bettors have a very clear set of options: they either bet on Murray, bet on one of the options directly below him or pass altogether. That’s it and that’s all. Sometimes you can’t fight city hall. Murray is one of few names who check all the boxes.
First off, when you bet this type of future, you want someone who will get the ball enough to actually win the award. That means a quarterback or a running back. Forget receivers. Only three have won the award in the past 20 years and the position is inherently too reliant on other factors to even be part of our considerations.
Of this year’s quarterbacks class, only Murray looks like the only lock to be the starter in Week 1. The only other rookie quarterback starter we could envision is Dwayne Haskins, but that would be a for a Redskins team that is void of top weapons and has top offensive tackle Trent Williams currently holding out.
If taking short odds on Murray isn’t your thing, then that leaves you with a pair of running backs – Henderson and Jacobs. Henderson got a boost recently when it was learned that starter Todd Gurley won’t be used during the preseason as he recovers from a knee injury suffered late last season. Still, we would need double-digit odds to back someone who, as of now, is keeping the seat warm for the presumed starter.
That leaves us with Jacobs. At 8-1, the Alabama product provides us with a nice value as someone who will be part of a dynamic offense and was drafted for the sole purpose of being “the guy” right away.
The Raiders improved their offensive line in the offseason and have added some serious firepower at receiver, specifically Antonio Brown, to boost their aerial attack. It all adds up to a perfect chance for Jacobs to shine in an offense that should be much improved.
We won’t bite on Murray, although we understand and respect why he’s the favorite. That leaves us with two options: pass or bet Jacobs. At 8-1, we’ll take a piece of Jacobs.
Last year’s race saw New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley edge out Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield. Those two were pretty obvious choices before the season and it worked out that way. There’s no need to get cute this season either.
If it’s not Murray it can only be one of a few other names and Jacobs, based on playing time, looks like the best bet of that group, especially at 8-1.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds via BetOnline.ag
Kyler Murray +160
Darrell Henderson +700
Dwayne Haskins +700
Daniel Jacobs +800
David Montgomery +1400
Deebo Samuel +1600
Mecole Hardman +1800
Parris Campbell +2000
Miles Sander +2000
TJ Hockenson +2500
Marquise Brown +2500
DK Metcalf +2500
Noah Fant +2800
Damien Harris +2800
N’Keal Harry +2800
Drew Lock +2800
AJ Brown +3300
Andy Isabella +3300
Daniel Jones +3300
Will Grier +3300
JJ Arcega-Whiteside +6600
Irv Smith Jr. +6600