Surely the most anticipated NFL game of Week 4 will be played between the inter-conference rivals on Sunday, October 2, so you can’t afford to miss out on the best Chiefs vs. Buccaneers betting pick and odds.

Both Kansas City and Tampa Bay will be looking to improve to a 3-1 record when they meet at Raymond James Stadium after suffering their first respective defeats of the season last week. The Chiefs are slight 1-point favorites on Bovada Sportsbook, while the total is set at 45 points. These inter-conference rivals have previously met in Super Bowl LV when the Buccaneers won 31-9 in Tampa.

Chiefs were surprised by the Colts in Indianapolis

The Kansas City Chiefs suffered their first defeat of the season as they fell short 20-17 to the Indianapolis Colts on the road. Kansas City had a 14-10 lead at halftime but scored just three points in the second half in their worst offensive display of the campaign.

Patrick Mahomes didn’t experience the best of games as he completed 20 of 35 passes for 262 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Mahomes’ favorite target, Travis Kelce, caught that lone TD pass, while JuJu Smith-Schuster led all the receivers with 89 yards on five receptions. Clyde Edwards-Helaire scored a rushing touchdown but collected zero yards on seven carries as the Chiefs were completely stopped on the ground. They had only 58 yards on 23 attempts. On defense, Nick Bolton registered two sacks, while Darius Harris totaled 13 tackles.

WR Mecole Hardman (heel) and K Harrison Butker (ankle) are questionable to take on the Bucs on Sunday, while LB Willie Gay is suspended and will not feature.

Buccaneers were held by the Packers at home

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost their first game of the season in a 14-12 low-scoring affair against the Green Bay Packers at home. Tampa Bay trailed 14-3 at halftime but cut the deficit to two points with just 14 seconds to go, but a two-point conversion was unsuccessful and the visitors got away with a tight victory.

Tom Brady completed 31 of 42 passes for 271 yards and a touchdown, but the Buccaneers’ run offense was quite ineffective. The hosts had only 34 yards on 14 carries, while Russell Gage led all the receivers with 87 yards on 12 catches. He also scored the lone passing TD. Mike Edwards was impressive on defense with 13 total tackles.

The Buccaneers will be happy to have some of their ineligible players back for this Sunday duel against the Chiefs, but will still be without some key individuals. C Ryan Jensen (knee), DE Akiem Hicks (foot), WR Chris Godwin (hamstring), and RB Giovani Bernard (ankle) are out, while T Donovan Smith (elbow) is questionable to play on Sunday.


Kansas City:

  • 6-13 ATS in the last 19 games following an ATS loss
  • 3-7 ATS in the last ten games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game

Tampa Bay:

  • 9-4 ATS in the last 13 games overall
  • 11-4 ATS in the last 15 home games
  • 4-0 ATS in the last four games following an ATS loss

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick  

Tom Brady, even without such receivers as Mike Evans, Julio Jones, and Chris Godwin, was solid last week. This time around, the Bucs will be stronger for Evans and Jones, so I expect Brady to have another strong showing against the team that allows 220+ passing yards to the opponents. While I am backing Tampa’s offense to improve on its 12-point display against Green Bay and score 20+ in this one, I do expect the league’s best defense (9.0 ppg allowed) to keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in check.

Pick: Take the Buccaneers at -1 (-110)

The Total

Tampa Bay is not good at running the ball, and the Chiefs are strong in that department (defensively), so I don’t think the Bucs will use Leonard Fournette and other runners a lot in this one. Kansas City is also not very productive on the ground, and considering we have two of the best quarterbacks in the game, it’s normal to expect plenty of passes and a bunch of points. Over is 8-3 in the Chiefs’ last 11 games overall; Over is 5-1 in Kansas City’s previous six road games, while Over is 21-7-1 in the Buccaneers’ last 29 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Pick: Go Over 44.5 points (-120)