Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins – Free Betting Pick Week 16

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

 
Sunday, 12/23/2018 at 01:00 pm JACKSONVILLE (4-10) at MIAMI (7-7)
Expanded Matchup Game Center Bet Now Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics
Teams Line PF PA SU ATS O/U/P RY PY TY RY PY TY
109JACKSONVILLE 38 16.1 20.6 4-10 4-8-2 6-8-0 111.9 207.4 319.3 119.6 198.9 318.5
110MIAMI -3 21.1 26.7 7-7 8-6-0 7-7-0 112.6 189.5 302.1 145.2 257.1 402.3

Last Updated: 2018-12-19

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins will go head-to-head on the grass of Hard Rock Stadium. This early afternoon game is scheduled to get underway at 1:00 p.m. ET and CBS will televise the action.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins Betting Odds

Miami is giving up 5 points in this AFC game. The Jaguars are currently being given +170 moneyline odds while the Dolphins are -200. This AFC game could present some in-game betting possibilities. The over/under is set at 39.5 points.

The Jaguars are 4-10 straight up (SU) while the Dolphins are 7-7 SU. The disappointing Jaguars have lost 12.5 units so far and are 4-8-2 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U record of 6-8.

The Dolphins are up 3.6 units this season. They’re 8-6 ATS and have an even O/U record of 7-7.

The Jaguars are most-recently on the rebound after a thin 16-13 loss to Washington last week. The Jags defense allowed the Redskins to run for 109 yards on 33 rush attempts. On the offense, Cody Kessler completed only nine passes on 17 attempts for 57 yards and one interception. Leonard Fournette (46 rushing yards on 11 attempts) and the signal-caller Kessler (68 yards on six carries) spearheaded the running attack. Dede Westbrook (three receptions, 21 yards) and Fournette (three catches, 18 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

Miami just fell 41-17 to Minnesota in Week 15. Ryan Tannehill completed 11-of-24 passes for 108 yards. Kalen Ballage (123 rushing yards on 12 attempts, one TD) handled the running game as Danny Amendola (three receptions, 30 yards) and Kenyan Drake (three catches, 28 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Each squad has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Jacksonville has run the ball on 43.2 percent of its offensive possessions while Miami has a rush percentage of 45.0. The Jaguars have run for 112 yards/game and have six touchdowns on the ground this year. The Dolphins are putting up 113 rushing yards per contest and have seven total rush TDs.

The Jags have averaged 227 yards through the air overall and have 15 passing scores so far. The Dolphins have put up 215 pass yards per game and have 24 total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, Jacksonville appears to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 120 rush yards and 212 pass yards per game. Miami has allowed 145.2 yards per game on the ground and 269.4 to opponents in the air. The Jags are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.65 to opposing QBs, while the Dolphins have given up a 6.76 ANY/A.

Kessler has amassed 363 pass yards this season, and has connected on 48-of-71 attempts with one passing touchdowns and two interceptions. Kessler’s got a 2.50 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 2.71 over the last two outings.

Look for a balanced approach offensively from Jacksonville in this one. Dede Westbrook (574 receiving yards, four receiving touchdowns on the year), Leonard Fournette (360 rush yards, four rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Cody Kessler (104 rush yards, 0 receiving yards) have all played significant roles recently.

In the other huddle, Ryan Tannehill has put up 1,421 yards, 13 TDs and six INTs. Tannehill’s ANY/A stands at 5.38 for the season and 5.82 across his last two outings.

We expect the Dolphins to dictate tempo by getting the ball in the hands of their running backs. In addition to Kenny Stills (386 receiving yards, five receiving TDs this season), Frank Gore (630 rush yards, one receiving TD) and Kalen Ballage (134 rush yards, one rush TD) have really been key factors in the Dolphins’ recent offensive strategies.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins NFL Pick

SU Winner – Dolphins, ATS Winner – Jaguars, O/U – Under

Notes

Team Betting Notes

Jacksonville has averaged 4.3 yards per carry across its last three contests and 5.0 over its last two.

Miami has averaged 6.3 yards per carry over its last three games and 8.4 over its past two.

The Miami offense has lost seven fumbles this season while Jacksonville has let 14 get away.

Jacksonville has lost 10 of its last 11 games SU, with a six-point victory over Indianapolis on December 2nd accounting for the only win over that stretch.

The Jaguars offense has recorded three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Dolphins have accounted for eight such plays.

The Jacksonville defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Miami has given up 10 such plays.

The Jacksonville offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Miami has created 12 such runs.

The Jaguars defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Dolphins have given up 18 such runs.

The Jacksonville defensive unit has 28 sacks on the year while Miami has 24.

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