The Week 5 of the NFL is starting with TNF and a conference tilt on Thursday, October 6 in Denver, so make sure you don’t miss out on the best Colts Rams vs. Broncos betting pick and odds.
Denver is hoping for the third home win of the season when they welcome Indianapolis at Empower Field at Mile High. The Broncos are -3.5 favorites on BookMaker Sportsbook, while the total is set at 42.5 points. These AFC rivals haven’t met since 2019 when the Colts won 15-13 in Indianapolis.
Colts couldn’t make a comeback against the Titans
The Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1) failed to get a back-to-back win as they suffered a 24-17 home defeat to the divisional foes Tennessee Titans. Indianapolis kept the Titans off the scoreboard in the second half, but Tennessee had a 14-point lead at halftime and the Colts couldn’t complete a comeback. The hosts were better in total yards (365-243), but they committed three turnovers and didn’t force a single one on the other end.
Matt Ryan completed 27 of 37 passes for 356 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Mo Alie-Cox and Alec Pierce combined for 165 yards on ten catches (12 targets), with the former getting both of Ryan’s TD passes. Indianapolis’ run offense didn’t work; they collected just 38 yards on 23 carries. Defensively, Zaire Franklin was a monster with game-high 15 total tackles.
LB Shaquille Leonard (concussion) and DE Tyquan Lewis (concussion) are out for Thursday’s game in Denver. RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) and S Julian Blackmon (ankle) are questionable to face the Broncos.
Broncos’ defense didn’t work in a loss to the Raiders
The Denver Broncos (2-2) lost their second road game of the campaign as the Las Vegas Raiders recorded their first win of the season 32-23. Denver’s defense, which played very well in the opening three games, wasn’t as strong this time around and surrendered 385 yards and 25 first downs. On the other side, the Broncos had only 299 yards and 12 first downs. Perhaps the breaking point of the game was in the second quarter when Melvin Gordon fumbled deep in Las Vegas’ half and the Raiders returned that fumble for a touchdown.
Russell Wilson was solid as he completed 17 of 25 passes for 237 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. He also added 29 yards on the ground and a rushing TD. Denver had three receivers with 50+ yards in this loss: KJ Hamler, Jerry Jeudy, and Courtland Sutton, and Jeudy and Sutton registered a touchdown each. The run offense wasn’t good, and it was even worse after Javonte Williams’ injury, which turned out to be season-ending. On defense, Josey Jewell and Jonas Griffith combined for 24 tackles.
With Javonte Williams out for the season, Denver brought RB Latavius Murray out of New Orleans’ practice squad. LB Randy Gregory (knee) and Justin Simmons (quadriceps) are out and will not meet Indianapolis. G Billy Turner (knee), S P.J. Locke III (concussion), WR Tyrie Cleveland (hamstring), and S Caden Sterns (hip) are questionable to feature against the Colts.
- 1-5 ATS in the last six games overall
- 1-5 ATS in the last six vs. AFC rivals
- 7-3 ATS in the last ten games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game
- 17-8 ATS in the last 25 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game
- 14-3 ATS in the last 17 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos Pick
Russell Wilson had his best outing in Denver’s uniform in a loss to Las Vegas, and it seems that his chemistry with receivers is getting stronger. Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and KJ Hamler are good enough to unlock any secondary, and even though the Broncos are below average in passing yards per game (226.3), I expect them to use pass offense more in this one following Williams’ injury.
Indianapolis has one of the best run defenses in the league, so I am sure Wilson will test the Colts’ secondary. Denver’s defense is one of the best in the NFL, especially at home, where they know how to win games, and I am backing the hosts to win this one as well. The Colts, who prefer passing over running, are facing a top 5 pass defense and they could struggle against Denver’s secondary.
Pick: Take the Broncos at -2.5 (-130)
Two of the three weakest offenses in the NFL are facing each other and I don’t think we will see a high-scoring game here. Indianapolis averages just 14.3 ppg, while Denver scores 16.5 ppg. The Broncos’ defense allows only 17.0 ppg, so we will see plenty of key defensive plays from both teams. Under is 9-0 in the Colts’ last nine games overall; Under is 5-0 in Indianapolis’ previous five road games, while Under is 8-0 in the Colts’ last eight vs. AFC opponents. Additionally, Under is 11-4 in the Broncos’ last 15 games overall.
Pick: Go Under 42.5 points (-110)