Illinois vs. Michigan State College Football Betting Pick 11/9/19


The Spartans of Michigan State (-14) are preparing to welcome their Big 10 rival Illinois Fighting Illini to Spartan Stadium. This pivotal afternoon matchup is scheduled to get going at 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action live on FS1.

Illinois vs. Michigan State Betting Odds 11/9/2019

Michigan State is favored by 14 points in this Big 10 game. The Fighting Illini are currently receiving +425 moneyline odds while the Spartans are -600. The over/under has been set at 45 points. It looks like this matchup might offer some in-game betting opportunities.

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Sharp bettors have been leaning toward the Spartans. The opening line was originally placed at -12 while the total was initially 44.5.

The Fighting Illini are 5-4 straight up (SU), including 3-3 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Spartans are 4-4 SU overall and 2-3 SU in conference play. The Fighting Illini are down 0.1 units so far and 6-3 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 3-6.

The Spartans have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 9.4 units. They’re 2-6 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-5.

Illinois enters this contest on a zero-game winless streak while Michigan State has won zero in a row. The Fighting Illini are coming off a resounding 38-10 victory over Rutgers last week. Brandon Peters completed only six-of-11 passes for 120 yards and one touchdown. Reggie Corbin (51 rushing yards on 13 attempts) led the ground attack in the win while Josh Imatorbhebhe (three receptions, 56 yards, one TD) and Donny Navarro (two catches, 57 yards) shared the receiving duties.

Back on October 26, Penn State got the win against this Michigan State team by a score of 28-7. The Spartans defensive unit let the Nittany Lions eat up the clock by rushing for 113 yards on 37 attempts. KJ Hamler put up a productive outing in the win for Penn State, posting 57 yards on five catches. As a group, the Spartans collectively completed 19-of-43 passes for 182 yards and two interceptions. Brian Lewerke went 16-for-34 for 165 yards and one interception while Rocky Lombardi was one-of-six for five yards and one interception. Elijah Collins (53 rushing yards on 17 attempts) led the ground game in the defeat while Matt Dotson (four receptions, 37 yards) and Tre Mosley (four catches, 37 yards) led the pass-catching corps.

Illinois has run the ball on 61.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Michigan State has a rush percentage of 47.6 percent. The Fighting Illini have produced 163 rush yards/game (including 161 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have 16 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Spartans are averaging 113 rushing yards per contest (86 in conference) and have seven total rush TDs.

It seems like the Spartans could hold an edge when it comes to applying pressure, as their offensive line has allowed just 12 sacks while the D-line has registered 22 sacks. The Fighting Illini offensive line has given up 28 sacks and their defense has forced only 22 sacks.

The Fighting Illini have averaged 163 yards through the air overall (125 per game against conference opposition) and have 14 passing scores so far. The Spartans have put up 233 pass yards per outing (209.4 against Big 10 competition) and have 11 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Illinois has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 187 yards and pass for 209 yards per game. Michigan State has allowed 117.1 rushing yards per game and 195.6 to opponents in the air. The Spartans are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.88 to opposing QBs, while the Fighting Illini have given up a 6.61 ANY/A.

Peters has put up 1,091 passing yards on the year, and has completed 89-of-159 attempts with 13 passing touchdowns and only four interceptions. Peters has a 5.91 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.20 over the last two outings.

Brian Lewerke has produced 1,708 yards, 11 TDs and three INTs for Michigan State. His ANY/A stands at 6.78 for the year and 1.89 over his past two games.

These two conference foes did not get a chance to play each other in 2018.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans NCAA Prediction

SU Winner – Michigan State, ATS Winner – Michigan State, O/U – Over


Team Betting Notes

Michigan State has lost seven fumbles this season while Illinois has lost six.

Each team defense has tallied 22 sacks this year.

Illinois has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.6 over its last two.

Michigan State has averaged 2.3 yards per carry over its last three games and 2.2 over its past two.

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