Planning on watching today’s Redbirds and Beacons game? Catch the action at Athletics-Recreation Center in Valparaiso, IN, as the Beacons hosts this showdown at 2:00 ET on ESPN+. Illinois State come into this Missouri Valley conference matchup as the -5.5 favorite. The over/under line currently sits at 137 points.


The Pick: Valparaiso Beacons +5.5

This game will be played at Athletics-Recreation Center at 2:00 ET on Sunday, March 3rd.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-68 in favor of the Beacons.
  • Not only will Valparaiso pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +5.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 137 points, and we like the over with a projected 144 points.

Can Illinois State Pull Off a Road Win?

Illinois State comes into this game with a 15-15 overall record and a 9-10 record in Missouri Valley Conference play. They are 4-9 on the road this season, and their average scoring margin on the road is -5.2 points per game.

So far this season, the Redbirds have been favored in 13 games, going 8-5 in those contests. They are coming off a 75-74 win over Missouri State, and over their last 10 road games, they have gone 4-6.

As the favorite this season, Illinois State has gone 6-7 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Redbirds have a mark of 5-5. On the road, Illinois State is 6-7 vs. the spread this year and they have gone 3-0 ATS in their last 3 road games.

Today’s over/under line of 137 is right around the average over/under line in Illinois State games this season (138.9). So far, 17 of their games have finished with more points than 137. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1, and over their previous five, it is 4-1. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 132 points.

Illinois State is fresh off a strong offensive showing, putting up 75 points versus Missouri State. This output is higher than their season-average of 66.8 points per game. Offensively, the Redbirds hold a season-long field goal percentage of 42%, placing them 327th in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 383rd in terms of percentage and 313rd in three-pointers made.

So far this season, the Illinois State defense has been performing well, ranking 69th in the country at 67.7 points allowed per contest. In their previous game vs. Missouri State, the Bears finished with a field goal percentage of 45% and a total of 74 points vs. Illinois State.

Will Valparaiso Win at Home?

Valparaiso has struggled mightily this season, as they come into tonight’s game with a 6-24 record. They have lost 11 straight games, and their record in Missouri Valley Conference play is just 2-17. At home, the Beacons are 4-11, and they have lost their last five games at home.

So far this season, Valparaiso has been the underdog in 23 of their 30 games, and they have gone just 2-21 in those contests. Their average scoring margin at home is -7.9 points per game, and their record as the underdog is 2-21.

Valparaiso has struggled against the spread at home this season, going just 5-10. Their overall ATS record is 16-12-1, but they have gone 0-3 vs. the spread in their last three home games and 2-8 in their last 10. As the underdog, the Beacons have a mark of 13-9-1 vs. the spread this year and are 3-2 in their last five games as the underdog.

Valparaiso has an over/under record of 15-14 this season and the average scoring total in their games is 142.2 points. Today’s over/under line of 137 is lower than the average OU line in their games (144). So far, 20 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, their over/under record is 1-2 and the average scoring total in those games is 139 points.

In their recent matchup, the Valparaiso offense ended with 54 points against Northern Iowa. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 38.9% and made 7 threes. The top scorer for the Beacons was Jerome Palm with 14 points, while Jahari Williamson also added 13 to the scoreboard.

Coming into today’s game, the Valparaiso defense is giving up an average of 75.3 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Valparaiso’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 48.5% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 36.4% this season.