5 months ago
The Kelly Criterion as it pertains to daily fantasy sports is a relatively new concept, but it does have some promise as a tool for helping you select the best contest you should be playing in.
If you are betting with money you can’t afford to lose, you’ll do things differently than if you could write off the loss with no problem. This holds true not only in sports betting, but in all forms of gambling where the player has any sort of input into the outcome.
I didn’t receive a note from my sportsbook saying, “You know, Moody, that Cleveland loss was so bad we’re going to take an extra $100 from your account.”
The simple truth is a method that takes 45 minutes a day and picks 54% winners is going to be more valuable to the majority of sports bettors than a 57% method that takes five hours a day just due to time available for handicapping.
Should we give more attention to a team’s most recent games? What a baseball team or NBA team did three months ago probably doesn’t have much bearing on today’s game, although we’re most likely still using those stats.
The fourth part of our series on handicapping techniques will look at trend-based handicapping, which gets a bit of mixed reviews from handicappers.
We hear the term “steam” thrown around loosely, and we’re going to take a closer look at what it is or what it could be. Steam is nothing more than a significant change in the market as a result of a lot of action on one side or the other.
When we handicap football we’re always looking for that edge that’s outside of the box, such as look-ahead spots and coast-to-coast travel, as well as even revenge angles. And yet, many people overlook those things in baseball,
Situational handicapping is fairly self-explanatory in that you look at the situations teams are in and compare that to how teams have fared in that situation in the past.
Surely you have been told time and time again about money management and discipline. There’s no reason to beat a dead horse, as there are only three possible outcomes. You either have it, will learn it, or won’t.
The numbers that books throw out are not by any means random, and I’d like to break down some of the components that I look at when betting a total.
Recreational and casual bettors feel either the need for action, or the need to have a certain amount of wagers in play. As we’ve discussed before, if you are in this for entertainment purposes only then that’s all well and good.
Many people look at an MLB rotation on a given day and look for teams to bet “on” that are perceived to simply be the better team. In a way, that’s the public way of thinking and what the bookmakers practically count on.
Reverse Line Movement – If you’ve heard the term but don’t know what it’s referencing, then in a few hundred words you will. Remember, there are no stupid questions, only stupid answers. So, here we go.
Truth be told I am a tout under the dictionary definition, so I suppose you have to consider the source. However, I am not trying to sell you anything and I do this t educate people so they might not make all the mistakes I did “growing up.” So, this is merely a continuance of some other articles and concepts.
As we know, in-game wagering is evolving on a regular basis. Professional bettors are utilizing it perhaps more than the full-game, set-it-and-forget-it bets.
In our last article we took a quick look at each of the three main handicapping techniques and will now look at each one a bit more in-depth, as well as show their strengths and weaknesses, along with their use in each of the four major sports.
One of the least understood aspects of sports betting is handicapping and the handicapping process.
Many people struggle with patience, and not just in life, but gambling. We want what we want and we want it now. In baseball, it can be dangerous to be impatient.
Just as the worst handicappers around are going to have some winning streaks, the best handicappers will also have some slumps. It simply can’t be avoided.
Many people overlook the value in +1.5 runs in an MLB game. The fact of the matter is that about 25% of all games are one-run games. Most casual bettors tend to look a chalky favorites and lay the -1.5, which can often bite back.
Bettors are generally familiar with sports wagering using a point spread. When we bet on a favorite using a point spread, in order to win our bet our team must win the game by more than the number. To win betting on the underdog, they can lose the game as long as it’s not by more than the number.
This article is intended to give a sense of clarity to those who bet on, or would like to bet on, baseball. Betting on baseball does require a slightly different skill-set than betting with a point spread, but in general there are the same risk/reward consequences. The laws of probability still apply.
Of course I’m not talking about losing a bet intentionally, but let’s face it, they happen. Whether it was a terrible handicapping job or a close one that could have gone either way, we’re going to lose.
Last night we were on the “over” in the Angels/A”s game, which was a loss in spite of numerous missed opportunities. We bet the game the night before at 8
We hear this term quite often and over a long period of time it’s of course a profitable thing to do, if you can ascertain what is and what is not public money. I’ve had conversations with many bettors over the years about this. It’s more complicated than simply looking at a bet percentage and … Continue reading Fading The Betting Public – Perceptions and Realities
I guess because I handicap sports and sell picks that I am considered a “tout” whether I like it or not. I don’t, but that’s the label that’s going to stick regardless.
There are a lot of instances in which hedging can be beneficial. Understanding these concepts can really boost a bankroll and be a huge help to your bottom line.
If you play it properly and maintain proper bankroll management with live betting or in-play wagering, it’s just another way that you can bang the books.
There are handicappers out there that are extremely successful. Sure, they’re good at picking games or finding mathematical edges, but there’s one thing that all of them have in common. They know how to manage a bankroll.
Line value is something that is discussed a lot among professionals and amateur handicappers, but not everybody knows exactly what it means. Key numbers are one of the most prominent examples.
Contrarian betting basically has the same type of mindset. The team that nobody wants to bet on is the team that the contrarian player is dying to bet on. There is a method to this madness.
There are a lot of complexities and if you don’t know what you are looking at, or what you are looking for, then it’s just a bunch of numbers and things changing colors. Betting odds and the movement of those odds can tell us a lot of really important things about what may happen in a given game.
Bettors should have a plan going into the New Year based on their available time each day to devote to sports betting, as well as what their goal is for the upcoming year. If you merely want to bet most of the TV games each day there’s nothing wrong with that as long as you realize you’re most likely going to end up in the red at the end of the season.
Few sports are more popular in the gambling world than college football. There’s passion, pride, and excitement. Whether it’s an opening weekend game between two non-conference blue-bloods like Alabama and USC or a heated end-of-season rivalry between Michigan and Ohio State, it’s hard not to get pumped about Saturday afternoons in the fall. But if you plan on betting, you need to know the 10 commandments.
When handicappers talk about value in sports betting, sometimes it hard to fully grasp what they mean.
There are a lot of misconceptions out there about sports betting. A lot of people that watch sports pick up a sportsbook account and think, “How hard can it be?” Well, it’s not easy. Realistic expectations can go a long way.
A lot of novice sports bettors are used to hearing about “smart money” or “sharp money”. Sometimes these groups are referred to as “wise guys” or “sharps”. Whatever you call them and their wagers, just know that they are the guys that have the respect of the sportsbooks.
It sounds like a negative when you hear experts talk about it. There is a certain connotation to it, but public money can be on the winning side as well. What it boils down to is that the public is very consistent.
Rotation numbers are assigned to particular teams all across North America to denote specific teams in specific sports in specific leagues. There is no mistake which team is which.
