7 months ago

Using the Kelly Criterion to Manage Your DFS Bankroll

The Kelly Criterion as it pertains to daily fantasy sports is a relatively new concept, but it does have some promise as a tool for helping you select the best contest you should be playing in.

by Allen Moody
By Allen Moody
Jun 13, 2017 at 18:41

The Concept of Betting With Scared Money

If you are betting with money you can’t afford to lose, you’ll do things differently than if you could write off the loss with no problem. This holds true not only in sports betting, but in all forms of gambling where the player has any sort of input into the outcome.

By Allen Moody
Jun 10, 2017 at 17:41

Results Are All That Really Matter

I didn’t receive a note from my sportsbook saying, “You know, Moody, that Cleveland loss was so bad we’re going to take an extra $100 from your account.”

By Allen Moody
Jun 8, 2017 at 19:24

Finding Time to Handicap

The simple truth is a method that takes 45 minutes a day and picks 54% winners is going to be more valuable to the majority of sports bettors than a 57% method that takes five hours a day just due to time available for handicapping.

By Allen Moody
Jun 5, 2017 at 8:11

A Handicapper’s Work is Never Done

Should we give more attention to a team’s most recent games? What a baseball team or NBA team did three months ago probably doesn’t have much bearing on today’s game, although we’re most likely still using those stats.

By Allen Moody
May 24, 2017 at 8:19

Trend-Based Handicapping

The fourth part of our series on handicapping techniques will look at trend-based handicapping, which gets a bit of mixed reviews from handicappers.

By Dave Essler
May 23, 2017 at 13:10

Line Moves – Real or Imagined​

We hear the term “steam” thrown around loosely, and we’re going to take a closer look at what it is or what it could be. Steam is nothing more than a significant change in the market as a result of a lot of action on one side or the other.

By Dave Essler
May 22, 2017 at 10:44

Situational Baseball Handicapping

When we handicap football we’re always looking for that edge that’s outside of the box, such as look-ahead spots and coast-to-coast travel, as well as even revenge angles. And yet, many people overlook those things in baseball,

By Allen Moody
May 18, 2017 at 7:39

Situational Handicapping Techniques

Situational handicapping is fairly self-explanatory in that you look at the situations teams are in and compare that to how teams have fared in that situation in the past.

By Dave Essler
May 17, 2017 at 14:35

Emotional Stability & Sports Handicapping

Surely you have been told time and time again about money management and discipline. There’s no reason to beat a dead horse, as there are only three possible outcomes. You either have it, will learn it, or won’t.

By Dave Essler
May 16, 2017 at 11:14

How Often or How Many Games Should You Bet On?

Recreational and casual bettors feel either the need for action, or the need to have a certain amount of wagers in play. As we’ve discussed before, if you are in this for entertainment purposes only then that’s all well and good.

By Dave Essler
May 16, 2017 at 10:41

Betting Against Situations – The Opposite Approach

Many people look at an MLB rotation on a given day and look for teams to bet “on” that are perceived to simply be the better team. In a way, that’s the public way of thinking and what the bookmakers practically count on.

By Dave Essler
May 16, 2017 at 10:32

Reverse Line Movement Betting Strategy

Reverse Line Movement – If you’ve heard the term but don’t know what it’s referencing, then in a few hundred words you will. Remember, there are no stupid questions, only stupid answers. So, here we go.

By Dave Essler
May 15, 2017 at 12:13

Picking a Sports Handicapper AKA Tout

Truth be told I am a tout under the dictionary definition, so I suppose you have to consider the source. However, I am not trying to sell you anything and I do this t educate people so they might not make all the mistakes I did “growing up.” So, this is merely a continuance of some other articles and concepts.

By Allen Moody
May 12, 2017 at 22:27

Statistical Handicapping

In our last article we took a quick look at each of the three main handicapping techniques and will now look at each one a bit more in-depth, as well as show their strengths and weaknesses, along with their use in each of the four major sports.

By Dave Essler
May 10, 2017 at 13:22

Waiting for MLB Lineups before Betting!

Many people struggle with patience, and not just in life, but gambling. We want what we want and we want it now. In baseball, it can be dangerous to be impatient.

By Allen Moody
May 10, 2017 at 9:12

The Fallacy of the Hot Handicapper

Just as the worst handicappers around are going to have some winning streaks, the best handicappers will also have some slumps. It simply can’t be avoided.

By Dave Essler
May 9, 2017 at 12:18

Value In Betting The MLB Baseball Run Line

Many people overlook the value in +1.5 runs in an MLB game. The fact of the matter is that about 25% of all games are one-run games. Most casual bettors tend to look a chalky favorites and lay the -1.5, which can often bite back.

By Dave Essler
May 8, 2017 at 10:54

MLB Run Line Betting – How To Explained

Bettors are generally familiar with sports wagering using a point spread. When we bet on a favorite using a point spread, in order to win our bet our team must win the game by more than the number. To win betting on the underdog, they can lose the game as long as it’s not by more than the number.

By Dave Essler
May 3, 2017 at 20:47

MLB Money Line Betting

This article is intended to give a sense of clarity to those who bet on, or would like to bet on, baseball. Betting on baseball does require a slightly different skill-set than betting with a point spread, but in general there are the same risk/reward consequences. The laws of probability still apply.

By Dave Essler
May 1, 2017 at 11:41

Learn To Win at Betting By Losing

Of course I’m not talking about losing a bet intentionally, but let’s face it, they happen. Whether it was a terrible handicapping job or a close one that could have gone either way, we’re going to lose.

By Dave Essler
Apr 28, 2017 at 18:01

If This Is You – Stop Betting Right Now

Last night we were on the “over” in the Angels/A”s game, which was a loss in spite of numerous missed opportunities. We bet the game the night before at 8

By Dave Essler
Apr 18, 2017 at 13:38

A Touts Thoughts on Buying Sports Picks

I guess because I handicap sports and sell picks that I am considered a “tout” whether I like it or not. I don’t, but that’s the label that’s going to stick regardless.

By Adam Burke
Mar 31, 2017 at 17:53

Sports Betting Tips – How To Hedge Your Bet

There are a lot of instances in which hedging can be beneficial. Understanding these concepts can really boost a bankroll and be a huge help to your bottom line.

By Adam Burke
Feb 2, 2017 at 16:15

Money Management and Sports Betting

There are handicappers out there that are extremely successful. Sure, they’re good at picking games or finding mathematical edges, but there’s one thing that all of them have in common. They know how to manage a bankroll.

By Adam Burke
Jan 25, 2017 at 15:56

Understanding The Key Numbers in NFL Sports Betting

Line value is something that is discussed a lot among professionals and amateur handicappers, but not everybody knows exactly what it means. Key numbers are one of the most prominent examples.

By Adam Burke
Jan 24, 2017 at 18:07

Sports Betting: What is Contrarian Betting?

Contrarian betting basically has the same type of mindset. The team that nobody wants to bet on is the team that the contrarian player is dying to bet on. There is a method to this madness.

By Adam Burke
Jan 24, 2017 at 17:58

Reading the Sports Betting Market

There are a lot of complexities and if you don’t know what you are looking at, or what you are looking for, then it’s just a bunch of numbers and things changing colors. Betting odds and the movement of those odds can tell us a lot of really important things about what may happen in a given game.

By Allen Moody
Dec 30, 2016 at 12:53

Sports Betting Tips for the New Year

Bettors should have a plan going into the New Year based on their available time each day to devote to sports betting, as well as what their goal is for the upcoming year. If you merely want to bet most of the TV games each day there’s nothing wrong with that as long as you realize you’re most likely going to end up in the red at the end of the season.

By Don Chino
Nov 1, 2016 at 2:23

The 10 Commandments of Betting College Football

Few sports are more popular in the gambling world than college football. There’s passion, pride, and excitement. Whether it’s an opening weekend game between two non-conference blue-bloods like Alabama and USC or a heated end-of-season rivalry between Michigan and Ohio State, it’s hard not to get pumped about Saturday afternoons in the fall. But if you plan on betting, you need to know the 10 commandments.

By Adam Burke
Oct 13, 2016 at 21:48

Sports Betting Odds: How to Win and Beat the Vig

There are a lot of misconceptions out there about sports betting. A lot of people that watch sports pick up a sportsbook account and think, “How hard can it be?” Well, it’s not easy. Realistic expectations can go a long way.

By Adam Burke
Oct 13, 2016 at 21:43

Sports Betting: What is Sharp Money?

A lot of novice sports bettors are used to hearing about “smart money” or “sharp money”. Sometimes these groups are referred to as “wise guys” or “sharps”. Whatever you call them and their wagers, just know that they are the guys that have the respect of the sportsbooks.

By Adam Burke
Oct 13, 2016 at 21:38

Sports Betting: What is Public Money?

It sounds like a negative when you hear experts talk about it. There is a certain connotation to it, but public money can be on the winning side as well. What it boils down to is that the public is very consistent.

By Adam Burke
Oct 13, 2016 at 19:59

What are Rotation Numbers in Sports Betting?

Rotation numbers are assigned to particular teams all across North America to denote specific teams in specific sports in specific leagues. There is no mistake which team is which.