How to Bet Milwaukee Bucks vs. Golden State Warriors NBA Prediction 11/8/18

Date | AuthorAdmir Aljic

Last Updated: 2018-11-08

The Milwaukee Bucks (8-2; 6-3-1 ATS) are on their journey at the west coast and after a 118-103 defeat at the Portland Trail Blazers, the Bucks will visit the defending champions at Oracle Arena in Oakland. The Golden State Warriors (10-1; 7-4 ATS) are on an eight-game winning streak, playing some great basketball on both sides of the ball, so the Bucks will have a difficult assignment to upset the odds and escape with a win.


Milwaukee is coming in full strength as we’ll ignore Christian Wood’s injury who’s a fringe player for the Bucks, while the Warriors will be playing without Draymond Green who’s sidelined with a toe sprain. Green suffered the injury in Golden State’s previous game against the Grizzlies, but he shouldn’t be out for too long. Shaun Livingston will probably miss the clash with a foot injury, but Andre Iguodala should be ready to return from a calf injury after missing the matchup with the Grizzlies.

The Line

The Golden State Warriors opened as 7-point favorites with the total at 234.5 points and the Bucks as +240 money line underdogs. The Warriors are set at -300 to win the game straight up, and they are 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS in six home games this season, and 4-2 straight up and ATS in their last six home games when listed as favorites with a margin between six and eight points. On the other side, the Bucks are 2-7 straight up and just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games on the road.

What’s at Stake?

Beating the defending NBA champions on their home court is always a pleasure, so be sure that Bucks will try their best to upset the Warriors tonight as they have nothing to lose. They are off to a strong 8-2 start on the young season and the eventual loss against the arguably best team in the league shouldn’t affect their confidence too much. Golden State will try to maintain its winning streak, but if they play without Draymond Green and lose the game, the Warriors will have a solid excuse. However, the motivation shouldn’t be an issue here, as both teams will try to bring their A game against the elite opponent.

The Spot

The Milwaukee Bucks are on a four-game road trip and they lost the opener at the Portland Trail Blazers 118-103. After the clash with the Warriors, the Bucks will visit the Los Angeles Clippers and the Denver Nuggets, so they are on a pretty tough schedule at the moment. On the other side, the Golden State Warriors will play their fourth home game in a row and they will stay in Oakland until the next Tuesday when they travel to Los Angeles to meet the Clippers.

The Matchup

The defending champions are off to a red-hot start on the season as they are averaging 123.5 points per game (1st in the league) on 51.9% shooting from the field (1st in the league) while hitting 42.3% of their treys (1st in the league), and they are the only team in the league above 40.0% from beyond the arc. On the other side of the ball, the Warriors are conceding 109.7 points per contest (10th in the league), allowing their opponents to shoot 44.0% from the field (8th in the league) and just 32.4% from beyond the arc (5th in the league).

Hereof, the Bucks will have to play some exceptional defense to stand a chance on this one, and the Bucks are allowing 107.3 points per game (5th in the league) on just 41.6% shooting from the field (1st in the NBA), so they certainly have the capacity to slow down the frenzied Warriors offense. Interestingly, the Bucks are 2nd-most efficient team in the league just behind the Warriors with 120.0 points per game on 47.6% shooting from the field (7th in the league), while they are hitting 38.0% of their 3-point attempts and they will need to continue with good shot selection if they want to surprise the hosts here.

Milwaukee will have to find the way to deal with Stephen Curry who is averaging 31.3 points on 52.5% shooting from the field while hitting 5.6 threes per game out of 11.1 attempts. The strong defense on Curry could be crucial, as Kevin Durant will have a tough matchup against Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak is tallying 25.8 points and 13.3 rebounds per game on 54.4% shooting from the field, so the Warriors will definitely miss Draymond Green on Antetokounmpo if their elite stopper cannot suit up for tonight’s game.

Golden State has won eight of the last ten meetings with Milwaukee, but the Warriors have covered only four times during that span. They are 4-1 straight up and 1-4 ATS in the last five H2H meetings at Oracle Arena, while the Bucks upset the Warriors in their last season’s matchup in Oakland 116-107 as 4-point underdogs.

The Bets

The Warriors are looking unstoppable at the moment and they’ve easily won their last three games at home including a 131-121 victory to the New Orleans Pelicans. However, the Bucks seems like a team capable of dealing with Golden State’s terrific offense, so I’m backing them to stay close on this one, especially after that comfortable loss at Portland. The Bucks should have a huge motive to prove themselves in the toughest possible road game, while Draymond Green eventual absence could only help them to cover or completely upset the odds with a straight up win.

When it comes to the totals, the line has been set pretty high which was expected as two most efficient teams in the league are facing each other, while Golden State is leading the league in assists per game (30.5), and the Bucks are right behind them with 26.4 assists per contest. However, both teams can play some strong defense, so surpassing the 234-point mark could be a tricky job.

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