Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Free Pick 09/25/19

The Houston Astros will be taking on their division rival Seattle Mariners. The action begins at 10:10 p.m. ET and you can watch the game on RTNW and ATSW.

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Odds

Vegas has listed Seattle (+300) as the underdog to Houston (-375). Bettors are able to gamble on the game’s total with odds sitting at -120 for over 9 runs and even money (+100) for under 9. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds sitting at -220 for the Astros -1.5 runs and +180 for the Mariners +1.5 runs.

The Astros have gone 103-54 SU this year and are 84-72 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t moved the needle a whole lot this year, gaining 3.8 units for moneyline gamblers, despite having lost 0.8 units ATS. Houston’s covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Mariners, on the other hand, are 66-91 SU and 78-78 ATS. They’ve lost 14.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 10.0 units ATS. Seattle has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Seattle games have an over/under record of 85-60-11 in 2019. Astros games have gone under 80 times, gone over 71 times and pushed on five occasions.

The right-handed Zack Greinke is getting the nod for Houston. Greinke is 17-5 with a 3.05 ERA and 178 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Mariners this year and only made one start against them in 2018 (1-0, 0.00 ERA and six strikeouts across 6.2 innings).

The Mariners will turn to lefty Yusei Kikuchi (6-10, 5.55 ERA), who’s got 112 strikeouts and 50 walks, along with a WHIP of 1.54. Kikuchi is 0-1 with 11 strikeouts and a 6.43 ERA across three starts against Houston this year.

Houston’s pitching staff allowed 4.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.66 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 10.54 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.81, along with a K/9 of 9.91.

Astros hitters have slashed .275/.356/.496 on their way to 5.7 runs scored per game in 2019, including 6.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).

Houston’s offense has been sparked by outfielder Michael Brantley and first baseman Yuli Gurriel, who have combined to swat 51 home runs. Brantley is hitting .313/.374/.501 with 21 home runs, 86 RBIs and 87 runs scored, while Gurriel (.302/.347/.546) has produced 30 homers, 102 RBIs and 84 runs scored.

For the home team, Seattle’s pitchers have given up 5.6 runs per game overall in 2019. The club’s starters have a 5.29 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.91 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.7 K/9. In 71 games against AL West opponents, Mariners starters have an ERA of 5.96 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.96.

The Seattle offense has produced 4.8 runs per contest, including 4.4 per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .207/.259/.303 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

Catcher Omar Narvaez and outfielder Mallex Smith have led the way for the Mariners’ hitters this year. Narvaez is hitting .282/.355/.468 with 22 home runs, 55 RBIs and 63 runs scored, and Smith’s line is .228/.301/.337 with six homers, 37 RBIs, 69 runs and 45 stolen bases.

The Astros have gained 10.3 units and are 24-21 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 16 of those games, compared to 27 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Mariners have netted 0.0 units and are 57-49 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 59 of those games, compared to 38 that went under the total.

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Astros, ATS Winner – Astros, O/U – UNDER