Last Updated: 2017-10-08
The Houston Astros have jumped out in front of the Boston Red Sox with a 2-0 games lead in their best of five American League Division Series but now the series will shift to Fenway Park in Boston with a Red Sox team having the full support of their rabid fan base as their backs are against the wall. The Astros battered the Red Sox with back to back 8-2 wins to take command of the series, but as the old adage goes for sports playoff series, you are never really in trouble until you lose a game at home, and in this case, if the Red Sox lose the series is over. The probable pitching matchup for Sunday has Brad Peacock going against Doug Fister. Let’s look at the game and MLB picks.
The Houston Astros visit the Boston Red Sox on Sunday, October 8 in game three of the best of five ALDS with a start time of 2:30 pm Eastern on Fox Sports 1.
Houston opened as a -140 favorite with Boston as the +130 dog and the total opened at 9.5.
Astros vs. Red Sox
The Astros were the runaway champions of the American League West with a mark of 101-61 and a sparking road record of 53-28 which helped make them one of the most profitable teams on the baseball betting board. Houston was the top scoring team in MLB this year and ranked second for home runs. Their staff ERA ranked 11th in MLB.
Boston was the champion of the American League East with a record of 93-69 which made them a marginally profitable team on the season. The Red Sox were a reliable 48-33 at home this year with just 32 out of their 81 home games going over the total. It’s no surprise that a Boston team would finish 10h best in Major League Baseball for runs scored but what does surprise is their relatively low rank of 27th in MLB for home runs. Pitching was the strength of the Red Sox this year as they ranked fourth in MLB for earned run average and second for quality starts.
Probable Pitching Matchup – Brad Peacock vs. Doug Fister
Right hander Brad Peacock gets the start for the Astros while right hander Doug Fister will get the start for the Red Sox.
Peacock was 13-2 with a 3.00 ERA on the season and won his only start against the Red Sox in 2017. Fister has a record of 5-9 with a 4.88 ERA, which was his worst posting of his career.
The Astros are 80-37 in their last 117 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Astros are 12-4 in Peacock’s last 16 road starts. The Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Red Sox are 1-4 in Fister’s last 5 home starts.
The Over is 10-4 in the Astros last 14 road games. The Over is 4-1 in Peacock’s last 5 road starts. The Over is 5-2 in the Red Sox last 7 home games. The Under is 6-0-1 in Fister’s last 7 home starts.
Houston has won five out of their last six games against Boston with just two out of the last seven meetings between the Astros and Red Sox going under the total. The Astros have won three out of their last four road games against the Red Sox with nine out of the last 13 meetings at Fenway Park between the Red Sox and Astros going over the total.
Peacock gives the soaring Astros a big edge here. I am taking the Houston Astros in this one.
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