The 2021 World Series moves the scene to Truist Park in Atlanta, so we bring you the best Astros vs. Braves betting pick for Game 3 on Friday, October 29, along with the latest odds update, team stats, and betting trends.
The series is tied after a couple of games at Minute Maid Park in Houston. The Braves took the first blood as +113 road underdogs, 6-2, while the Astros bounced back as -125 home favorites, 7-2. According to MyBookie Sportsbook, Game 3 is listed as a pick ‘em with a total of 8.5 runs.
The Braves hope Ian Anderson will do the job
The Atlanta Braves smashed the Astros in the opener but lost Charlie Morton, who’s done for the season due to a leg injury. The 37-year-old righty has been a true ace for the Braves all season long, and the rest of their pitching staff will now have to step up and do a perfect job for the rest of the series.
Max Fried got pounded for six earned runs across five innings of work in Game 2. At least, the Braves decided to rest some of their best arms in the bullpen that has a 6-1 record with a 3.42 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 12 games this postseason.
Ian Anderson will toe the slab Friday, and he’s been excellent over his previous three starts in October with a 2.25 ERA and 3.50 FIP across 12 innings of work. The 23-year-old righty took a win in Game 3 of the 2021 NLDS against Milwaukee, tossing five scoreless innings, and got a couple of no-decisions against the Dodgers in the 2021 NLCS.
The Astros need to stay consistent on the mound
The Houston Astros hit well against Max Fried last Wednesday and didn’t have to do a lot against his relievers, but they cannot be happy with just eight hits and three walks in the opener. Through their 12 outings this postseason, the powerful Astros lineup has scored 76 runs on a .276/.346/.433 batting line, but the key for their success is on the other side of the ball.
The Astros bullpen boasts a 2.95 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a .215 batting average against in the postseason (4-1 record). On the other hand, their starting rotation owns a horrible 6.40 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, and a .290 batting average against.
Luis Garcia will take the mound in Game 3, and the 24-year-old righty is 1-1 with a 9.64 ERA and 5.63 FIP in three starts this postseason (9.1 innings pitched). After a couple of meltdowns against the White Sox and Red Sox, Garcia tossed a gem in Game 6 of the 2021 ALCS. Houston beat Boston 5-0, and Garcia fanned seven across 5.2 frames while surrendering just one hit and a free pass.
- 3-6 in the last nine games on the road
- 15-5 in the last 20 games overall
- 7-0 in the last seven games at home
Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves Pick
Frankly, I don’t like betting on this clash at all. It feels like a coin flip. Firstly, we have a couple of young and inexperienced starting pitchers who have never met their rivals before. Things can turn ugly, but facing the pitcher for the first time can also be a tricky job even for the best sluggers. Secondly, both teams have plenty of options in their bullpens and will mix and match all day long if they need to.
Finally, both teams can mash the ball. I’ve mentioned the Astros’ triple-slash against the Red Sox, but don’t forget that Atlanta eliminated arguably the two of the best bullpens in baseball, the Brewers and Dodgers. The Braves are undefeated in seven straight outings at Truist Park.
Pick: Take Atlanta Braves at -110
Game 1 just went in the under of an 8.5-run line, while Game 2 saw a push at 9.0 runs. I don’t trust either Ian Anderson and Luis Garcia, so give me the over in Game 3. Both starters will be on a short leash, but a few runs in the first three or four innings should help.
The over has hit in the Astros’ last five showings on the road, and it is 11-3-1 in their previous 15 games overall. On the other side, the over is 4-2-1 in the Braves’ previous seven games at any location.
Pick: Go over 8.5 runs at +100