Last Updated: 2017-10-09
After taking a commanding 2-0 series lead over the Boston Red Sox at home, the Houston Astros found the confines of Fenway Park to be not nearly as friendly as the Red Sox stormed back with a 10-3 win in game three which forces a game four on Monday afternoon. If the Red Sox win it will force a fifth and deciding game in the series on Wednesday from Houston. The Astros will be sending Charlie Morton in this contest, while the Red Sox seem likely to go with Rick Porcello. Let’s look at the game and MLB picks.
The Houston Astros visit the Boston Red Sox on Monday, October 9 in game four of the American League Division Series at Fenway Park with a start time of 1:08 pm Eastern on FS1.
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox
The American League West Division champion Houston Astros were the top scoring team in Major League Baseball this season and ranked first for batting average and second for home runs. The Astros also have good team speed as evidenced by their ranking of eighth in MLB for stolen bases. Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa led the Astros with 24 home runs followed by Marwin Gonzalez who posted 23. Altuve has clobbered three home runs in the playoffs so far and, along with Correa, leads the Astros in RBI with four so far in the post season. The Astros ranked 11th in Major League Baseball for earned run average.
Where the Red Sox are dangerous is with pitching as they ranked fourth in Major League Baseball for earned run average and second for quality starts. That’s the type of numbers that can keep a team in a playoff series. Although Boston ranked 10th in MLB for run scoring they had a notable lack of power and ranked just 27th in MLB for home runs. Mookie Betts led Boston with 24 home runs followed by Mitch Mooreland who had 22. Jackie Bradley has been a top bat in the playoffs with five runs batted in and a home run.
Probable Pitching Matchup – Charlie Morton vs. Rick Porcello
Right hander Charlie Morton will get the start for the Houston Astros while for the Red Sox seem likely to go with Rick Porcello. Morton was 14-7 on the season with a 3.62 earned run average. In his last three starts Morton is 3-0 with a tidy 1.96 earned run average. Porcello was 11-17 with a 4.65 ERA this season.
Houston has won five out of their last seven games against the Red Sox with the last three meetings going over the total. Boston has had the better of the head to head series at Boston, however, with 13 wins in their last 20 home games against the Astros. The Astros and Red Sox have gone under the total in just four out of their last 20 meetings at Fenway Park.
Porcello has been a go-against pitcher this season, while Morton continues to be underrated. Porcello gave up seven earned runs in six innings against the Astros earlier this season, while Morton allowed just two runs in 5.1 innings last month against the Red Sox. I’ll take the Houston Astros in this one.
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