When a Major League Baseball team scores 10 or more runs, they obviously expect to win. Going back to the 2004 season, we’d see that anytime a team reaches double digits in scoring, they’re going to win 96 percent of their games. So, what happens to the 4 percent of the teams who manage to score 10 runs and still lose? They tend to be decent bets the following game, although as is usually the case, they fare better in some situations than they do in others.
All teams off a loss where they scored 10 or more runs have posted a 109-94 record for a profit of $2200 and an ROI of 9 percent. Underdogs have gone 49-62 for a modest $340 profit and an ROI of 3%. Home dogs were 20-22 for a profit of $145 and a 3.5 percent ROI, while away dogs went 29-40 for a $195 profit and a 2.8 percent ROI. Away underdogs greater than +140 were a solid 15-18 for a $725 profit and a 22 percent ROI, while home underdogs greater than +140 for were just 2-5 for a $205 loss, although interestingly, all seven of these games landed over the total.
Favorites were 56-27 after a high-scoring loss and showed a $2000 profit with an ROI of 16.3%, with home favorites going 42-20 for a $1460 profit and an ROI of 15.4 percent. Away favorites were 14-7 for a $540 profit and an ROI of 19.5%.
Home favorites of -150 or greater have posted a solid 22-5 record, good for a profit of $1,300 and an ROI of 25.5 percent, while away favorites in the same price range were 4-1 and showed an ROI of slightly more than 27 percent.
In 2017, there were 18 teams who scored at least 10 runs and lost and they bounced back with a 14-4 record their following game for a profit of $1,170 and an ROI of 50 percent. Favorites were 9-3, while underdogs went 5-1. After a somewhat slow start, these teams did win their final eight attempts of the year, and finished on an 11-1 run after starting 3-3.
So far in the 2018 season, we’ve seen eight teams who lost while scoring double digits and they’ve responded with a 5-3 record for a $205 profit and an ROI of 19%. Underdogs are just 1-2, with favorites going 4-1 so far. After starting 1-2, these teams have won four of their last five games, so it’s definitely something to be on the lookout for as the season goes on.