Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trail Blazers NBA Expert Free Picks 02/13/19

Date | AuthorAdmir Aljic

Last Updated: 2019-02-13

The Golden State Warriors (41-15; 24-31-1 ATS) and the Portland Trail Blazers (33-23; 30-26 ATS) will lock horns for the fourth time this season in the Western Conference showdown at Moda Center in Portland, Oregon. The Warriors lead the series 2-1, beating the Trail Blazers 115-105 as 5-point road favorites in their previous meeting at Moda Center.

Golden State is coming off a 115-108 victory to the Utah Jazz last night to record its fifth consecutive win, while the Warriors have won 16 of their previous 17 games overall. On the other side, Portland has dropped two games in a row including a 120-111 defeat at Oklahoma City last time out. The Blazers are 7-4 straight up and ATS in their previous 11 games overall, covering each time when they’ve won the game straight up.

Injuries/Suspensions

The Warriors will be without DeMarcus Cousins (rest), while Draymond Green is listed as questionable due to a knee problem, so the reigning champions’ frontcourt could be quite shorthanded tonight. The Blazers don’t have any serious injury worries and all their players should be ready to go.

The Line

The Warriors opened as 4.5-point favorites with the total at 234.5 points and the Blazers at +167 money line odds. Still, the bookies could adjust the lines if Draymond Green doesn’t suit up for tonight’s matchup. The Warriors are on an 11-game winning streak away from home, covering the spread seven times in the process, while the over has hit seven times during that span. The Blazers are 9-1 straight up and 8-2 ATS in their last ten showings on the home court, and the over is 7-2-1 during that stretch.

What’s at Stake?

The Warriors are topping the Western Conference three games ahead of the Nuggets, so they can afford to lose this game, but the Warriors are still one game behind the Milwaukee Bucks at the NBA standings. The Blazers are tied with Houston at the No. 4 seed in the West, while Utah and San Antonio are both just 1.5 games behind, and the Blazers would certainly like to stay at least at the 5th spot.

The Spot

Golden State will play without rest here, and the Warriors are 6-1 straight up and 2-4-1 ATS on the second day of their seven back-to-back sets this season. On the other side, Portland had one day to rest after losing at Oklahoma City Monday night. After tonight’s matchup, both teams will enjoy an All-Star break.

The Matchup

DeMarcus Cousins’ absence will mean more shots for the other Warriors’ key players, and if Draymond Green has to miss the clash, Kevin Durant will have to log all minutes he can. While averaging 27.5 points this season, Durant is tallying 24.7 points over his last ten appearances. KD should be busy tonight on both ends of the floor, as Stephen Curry will have to deal with Damian Lillard on the defensive end. C.J. McCollum is another backcourt threat for the Warriors, and the Blazers’ sharpshooter is averaging 24.0 points on 40.9% shooting from deep over his last five apps.

The Blazers will have to find their best defense if they want to beat the reigning champions. They are allowing 108.0 points per game when playing at home, while the Blazers’ defensive rating is 16th-best in the league with 110.1 points allowed per 100 possessions. Their opponents are shooting 45.7% from the field and 36.8% from beyond the arc which could be a huge issue against the Warriors who are making 38.5% of their 3-point attempts per 100 possessions. The Blazers are scoring 112.7 points per 100 possessions (10th in the league) on 46.4% shooting from the field (14th) and 36.2% from downtown (8th) while making 22.8 assists (22nd) and posting 47.5 rebounds (1st).

The Warriors’ offense is arguably the best in the league. They are scoring 117.0 points per 100 possessions (1st in the league) on 49.3% shooting from the field (1st) while making 29.0 assists (also 1st). On the other side of the ball, the Warriors are surrendering 109.5 points per 100 possessions (15th in the league) on 44.7% shooting from the field (5th) and 34.8% from beyond the arc (12th), while allowing 23.9 assists (14th) and 42.8 rebounds to their opponents (4th).

The Bets

The Blazers will have a tall task to beat the Warriors, although they will play at home and the visitors could miss two guys from their starting lineup. However, I think they can stay close and make this battle quite interesting to watch, and if they do it, everything is possible down the stretch. The Warriors are on a terrific run, but they will have to kneel at some point, so I’ll take the Blazers to cover the spread, hoping they will have a good shooting night and will play tough defense.

When it comes to the totals, the line has been set pretty high, so I’m backing the under even though the betting trends are suggesting the opposite. As I’ve mentioned, the Blazers have to put on a strong D and need to slow down the tempo if they want to grab a victory. Also, the last four H2H duels had fewer than 234 points in the total.

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