Free WNBA Pick September 29, 2017

 

Last Updated: 2017-09-29

So far it’s been hard to knock the WNBA Finals from an entertainment standpoint, as both of the first two games were decided by two points or less in games that could have gone either way. Los Angeles is favored by 3.5 and the total is 155.5.

After the Sparks jumped out to a huge first-quarter lead in Game 1, it was the Lynx who did the same in Game 2 and then had to fight off Los Angeles down the stretch to take the 70-68 victory, as things got a little sloppy in the fourth quarter.

Game 2’s low-scoring outcome has influenced the total on this one to an extent, as the total was 158 for Game 2 and has dropped 2.5 points in part due to the score of the game, as well as due to Los Angeles’ tendency to play better defense at home. For the season the Sparks average 83.3 points per game and allow 75.3, but at home those numbers change to 82.9 and 70.1.

The Lynx are your more traditional home and away team, averaging 85.4 points and allowing 74.6 overall on the season, and scoring 83.2 and allowing 75.5 points when on the road.

The Sparks were 18-1 straight-up at home during the year, while the Lynx were 13-5 away from home. Los Angeles was 14-5 against the spread, while Minnesota was 11-7, so both teams have fared well in tonight’s location, although the Sparks have done a little better.

When the two teams met in Los Angeles last month the Sparks were favored by 3 and the total was 155, so neither has really moved all that much, and Los Angeles came away with a 78-67 victory. The Lynx had a better shooting game than the Sparks, but attempted 10 fewer free throws and made 10 more turnovers. Teams aren’t going to win many games that way.

So far this series is following the same script as last year’s finals, where Los Angeles won the first game in Minnesota and the Lynx tied things up in Game 2, so we could very well be looking at another five-game series.

Neither team shot particularly well last game and the number of 3-point attempts was down quite a bit. After combining for 34 attempts in Game 1, the teams only attempted 18 last game and made just four.

I make the game Los Angeles 79-78, so no real value on either the side and the total, but will take a small stab on the over 155.5 and look for both offenses to be a bit better than they were in Game 2.

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