It’s been over a month since Adam Burke’s MLB Season Win Total series came out. Those that jumped in right away have been rewarded with some line moves, while other lines have moved against you as a result of injuries or a difference of opinion from limit bettors. With Spring Training coming to a close next week and Opening Day on April 5, it’s a good time to take a look at the win totals line movements and update each team’s pick based on their current situation. These will be posted just as the win totals were, alphabetically by division. The original win totals write-ups are hyperlinked in the team name.

Baltimore Orioles

Win Total Then: 81.5

Win Total Now: 82.5

Old Pick: Under

New Pick: Under

This move is a little bit surprising and the juice is actually on the over in this situation, so it may keep going up as we get closer to the season. Matt Wieters has had some setbacks in his return from Tommy John surgery and the rotation is still a work in progress. The Buck Showalter factor is real, however, and that may be a reason for the move up.

Boston Red Sox

Win Total Then: 86

Win Total Now: 86

Old Pick: Over

New Pick: Over

Still looking over for this one. Nothing overly negative has happened for the Red Sox so far in Spring Training. The situation with the bullpen and Koji Uehara is a bit of an issue, but there’s good enough depth back there and the Red Sox should still be considered the favorites to add Cole Hamels because of their prospect pool.

New York Yankees

Win Total Then: 81.5

Win Total Now: 81.5

Old Pick: Under

New Pick: Under

No change here. Masahiro Tanaka has looked good in Spring Training, but CC Sabathia has had mixed results and the lineup is still not particularly inspiring. People willing to bet on the health situation of the rotation have driven up the juice on the over, but the line remains the same.

Tampa Bay Rays

Win Total Then: 79.5

Win Total Now: 79.5

Old Pick: Under

New Pick: Under

Sticking with this one as well, in large part because of the forearm questions surrounding Alex Cobb. Cobb is reportedly fine, but it remains to be seen whether or not that will be an issue moving forward. There’s been some big support for the Rays from people like Jonah Keri and Joe Peta, so that has left this number open to some interpretation.

Toronto Blue Jays

Win Total Then: 83.5

Win Total Now: 81.5

Old Pick: Over

New Pick: Over

The loss of Marcus Stroman was undoubtedly hard to take with regards to the Toronto Blue Jays win total. A two-win adjustment is probably accurate for Stroman, but this is still a team with a high ceiling. The Blue Jays should get Michael Saunders back quicker than expected and Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris appear to round out a balanced rotation with a high ceiling. We’ll gladly take the better number in this spot.

Chicago White Sox

Win Total Then: 81.5

Win Total Now: 82

Old Pick: Under

New Pick: Under

Under, but barely. The White Sox appear poised to roll with Carlos Rodon in the starting rotation, eliminating part of a big problem. The White Sox had no starting pitching depth and going with Rodon adds a high-profile arm at the back end. Rodon will be inconsistent, but his talent is noticeable. The more studying of the Tigers roster, the more it looks like Chicago could finish second behind Cleveland. The thinnest of margins is keeping this pick under.

Cleveland Indians

Win Total Then: 84.5

Win Total Now: 84.5

Old Pick: Over

New Pick: Over

Yep. Unabashed Tribe supporter sticking with his original pick. Those of you that got in below this number did an excellent job doing so. The Indians have been getting a ton of national respect of late, though their futures odds don’t seem to be moving much. Nothing has happened during Spring Training to suggest that the Indians’ depth will take a hit and that was a big reason for the over play.

Detroit Tigers

Win Total Then: 84.5

Win Total Now: 84.5

Old Pick: Under

New Pick: Under

The Detroit Tigers under is actually sitting at -120 at BetOnline, so we’re starting to see some movement on the under and that should not surprise anyway. The Tigers have a lot of starting pitching innings to replace and Alfredo Simon and Shane Greene probably aren’t the guys to do it. The bullpen has looked awful this spring and that’s a problem that is not going away.

Kansas City Royals

Win Total Then: 80.5

Win Total Now: 80.5

Old Pick: Over

New Pick: Under

The first flip-flop of the list comes on the Kansas City Royals. This rotation is really not good and Alex Gordon has been bothered by nagging injuries throughout Spring Training. Edinson Volquez has struggled with his control, which is one of the few rate stats that carry over from Spring Training. In fact, all of the Royals starters have struggled. The bullpen’s key cogs, including Greg Holland, appeared fatigued according to one AL scout last week. It wasn’t a strong pick to begin with, but it’s time to sell the Royals.

Minnesota Twins

Win Total Then: 71.5

Win Total Now: 72

Old Pick: Over

New Pick: Over

This one has not gotten out of range yet, though it is looking like it could move up to 73 before Opening Day. The Twins have plenty of issues, but they have some power and it seems that some of the other teams in the AL Central are going to regress. The Twins are the team that would most benefit, in all likelihood.

Houston Astros

Win Total Then: 76.5

Win Total Now: 76

Old Pick: Under

New Pick: Under

This win total was set too high and it’s still too high. The Astros are going to be a fascinating team to watch, but that doesn’t necessarily equate to wins. There’s only so many solo home runs a team can hit to support a marginal pitching staff, especially in a tough division. Chicks may dig the long ball, but bettors don’t right now.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Win Total Then: 88.5

Win Total Now: 87.5

Old Pick: Under

New Pick: Under

This win total hasn’t made sense from the moment it was posted. The Angels lost one of their most valuable players not named Mike Trout in the Howie Kendrick trade and have plenty of starting rotation problems. Garrett Richards should be back sometime in late April, but nobody has taken command of the fifth spot and the AL West is pretty good. A full win worth of movement without a major injury is a substantial move.

Oakland Athletics

Win Total Then: 81.5

Win Total Now: 82.5

Old Pick: Over

New Pick: Over

The A’s have had quite a starting rotation competition behind Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, and Jesse Hahn. Barry Zito may even win a rotation spot. That’s not exactly exciting news for an over, but Zito’s stuff can play up in Oakland. There are no major injuries, though Josh Reddick’s oblique is a concern, but the A’s have shifted Coco Crisp to LF and that will maximize their defensive potential.

Seattle Mariners

Win Total Then: 87.5

Win Total Now: 87.5

Old Pick: Under

New Pick: Over

I’m officially buying the hype. After worrying about the Mariners’ starting pitching depth, I’ve gotten to see Taijuan Walker twice and his stuff is magical. He looks healthy and the Mariners have an underrated lineup. Mike Zunino has looked like a good hitter in the Spring. While small sample sizes in Spring shouldn’t mean that much, the Mariners have the look of a team ready to make a deep run and it’s time to respect that.

Texas Rangers

Win Total Then: 78

Win Total Now: 75.5

Old Pick: Under

New Pick: Under

The saddest news of Spring Training was the loss of Yu Darvish to Tommy John surgery. Even the biggest Rangers hater on the planet can respect Darvish’s talent. A bad starting rotation went to awful without Darvish and the oddsmakers and the betting market reacted swiftly. The Rangers can hit, but they can’t pitch and the bullpen can’t protect leads.

Atlanta Braves

Win Total Then: 73.5

Win Total Now: 73.5

Old Pick: Under

New Pick: Under

Mike Minor’s shoulder discomfort for the second straight Spring is a major problem and Julio Teheran’s threat of regression is a killer for the starting rotation. Even though the Braves get a little help from Zack Wheeler’s torn UCL, they’re still going to fight with the Phillies for the worst team in this division. Craig Kimbrel should be traded during the season and everything not nailed down should be on the chopping block.

Miami Marlins

Win Total Then: 81.5

Win Total Now: 81.5

Old Pick: Over

New Pick: Over

It’s been an uneventful offseason for the Marlins except for the contract extension to Christian Yelich. The Marlins got a bump from Wheeler’s injury and this is a team that has excellent upside once Jose Fernandez gets back. This remains one of my favorite plays and it’s just a matter of making sure that nobody gets hurt between now and Opening Day.

New York Mets

Win Total Then: 81.5

Win Total Now: 81.5

Old Pick: Over

New Pick: Over

It’s unfortunate that Zack Wheeler’s torn UCL didn’t change this number. It’s more unfortunate that Zack Wheeler is out. However, the Mets have some decent starting pitching depth and the opportunity to be a pretty good team. With two teams to beat up on in this division, the Mets, Marlins, and Nationals are all in good shape.

Philadelphia Phillies

Win Total Then: 68.5

Win Total Now: 67.5

Old Pick: Under

New Pick: Under

Cliff Lee’s season and probably career are likely over with the damage in his left elbow. That leaves Cole Hamels, Ken Giles, Jonathan Papelbon, and Jake Diekman as the only pitchers above replacement-level on the team, and Papelbon and Hamels are trade candidates. The lineup is awful, too. This is a bad, bad team. If anybody has a shot at 100 losses, it’s the Phillies.

Washington Nationals

Win Total Then: 93.5

Win Total Now: 94

Old Pick: Over

New Pick: Over

This number has even touched 95 at some outlets and with good reason. As mentioned in the Pitcher Prop Bets article, Max Scherzer at 7/1 to win the NL Cy Young Award is a great bet and there are no weaknesses in this rotation. Anthony Rendon’s MCL issues are a worry and Denard Span will likely start the season on the DL, but there’s enough depth here to get the team by. This is a legitimate World Series contender.

Chicago Cubs

Win Total Then: 83

Win Total Now: 82.5

Old Pick: Under

New Pick: Under

The Cubs hype is out of control. Kris Bryant has ridiculous odds to win MVP and the Cubs have lower odds than a few legitimate World Series contenders. This is a team that has a high upside, but they are very unlikely to reach it this season. There are too many young players and too many things need to go right. The hype train hasn’t affected the win total yet and that’s because sharp money hit the under already.

Cincinnati Reds

Win Total Then: 77.5

Win Total Now: 77.5

Old Pick: Over

New Pick: Over

No reason not to stay consistent with this pick. Joey Votto seems healthy this spring and he means everything to the Reds offensively. The starting rotation is interesting with Homer Bailey out. Anthony DeSclafani and Raisel Iglesias, a 25-year-old Cuban defector, are in the rotation, along with Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, and Jason Marquis. There’s some upside here to see what the young guys can do.

Milwaukee Brewers

Win Total Then: 79

Win Total Now: 78.5

Old Pick: Under

New Pick: Under

This starting rotation has a lot of concerns and this is a division with a lot of competitive teams. No Spring Training developments alter this pick and the fact that the Brewers re-signed Francisco Rodriguez and will rely on him in high-leverage situations with some regression the profile makes this an even more attractive pick.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Win Total Then: 83.5

Win Total Now: 84.5

Old Pick: Over

New Pick: Over

Another one on the right side of the line move. The Pirates are a really good team with one of the most talented outfields in MLB. Andrew McCutchen has spent a good portion of Spring Training on the sidelines, but nobody seems overly concerned. There’s some better starting pitching depth this season with Vance Worley and Jeff Locke fighting at the back end of the rotation and that’s important because teams aren’t going to use just five or six starters all season long.

St. Louis Cardinals

Win Total Then: 87.5

Win Total Now: 87.5

Old Pick: Over

New Pick: Over

No reason to deviate here. Michael Wacha has looked great in the spring and Adam Wainwright seems to be staying together. Lance Lynn has had a hip flexor problem, but that should be fixed by Opening Day and his improvements against left-handed hitters from last season are legit. This is one of the best defensive teams in the league and everybody is still healthy.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Win Total Then: 71.5

Win Total Now: 72.5

Old Pick: Over

New Pick: Over

Bovada was the home of that early number and BetOnline has stayed consistent with their win total, but it was posted at 81.5 when that number was available. The Diamondbacks have some good hitters, even if Yasmany Tomas is sent to Triple-A because he is a man without a position. AJ Pollock with join Ender Inciarte/David Peralta and Mark Trumbo to create a productive outfield. This is a good offensive team that lacks pitching, but that may play in the NL.

Colorado Rockies

Win Total Then: 71.5

Win Total Now: 72.5

Old Pick: Over

New Pick: Over

This rotation is the stuff that nightmares are made of. However, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are still healthy (knock on wood) and this team can hit. The starting staff is horrible, however, so the Rockies will have to outscore opponents to win. They can do that. Jon Gray may make the rotation along with Eddie Butler, so at least there’s some upside potential from some of the top five.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Win Total Then: 92.5

Win Total Now: 92

Old Pick: Over

New Pick: Over

Barely. The injury to Hyun-Jin Ryu merits a lot of attention. He’s experiencing shoulder soreness, though there’s no structural damage. If it’s a muscular weakness, that could have some bad subsidiary effects like poor mechanics to hurt something else or a loss of velocity. There’s a certain level of depth here, but the Dodgers are on thin ice in that area. This was a lot stronger of an opinion five weeks ago.

San Diego Padres

Win Total Then: 84.5

Win Total Now: 83.5

Old Pick: Under

New Pick: Under

This was an easy one a few weeks ago and the number is still a bit too high. The Padres won the offseason, but seem to be losing the confidence of bettors after this inflated number came out. The Padres have upside and Brandon Morrow has been mostly healthy this spring, but injury concerns still exist.

San Francisco Giants

Win Total Then: 84.5

Win Total Now: 83.5

Old Pick: Under

New Pick: Under

The Giants are staring at an under juiced at -130 on this win total. BetOnline has been consistent with the number at 83.5. The original pick came from Bovada. It’s still the lean in this situation, but it’s not a strong play with the juice and the lower number. Bruce Bochy is probably the top manager in the National League and he seems to have a knack for maximizing the talent on his teams.