Jacob deGrom (4-4, 3.21 ERA) and Jaime Garcia (0-0, 0.00 ERA) start in the last of a four-game series between the New York Mets (23-18) and the St. Louis Cardinals (27-13) at Citi Field. The Cardinals won the last game 9-0 and St. Louis leads the series 2-1. Action begins at 1:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, May. 21 and can be seen on FSN-MW and SNY.
deGrom pitched 6.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering one run, striking out six and walking one in a 14-1 win over the Brewers. Lucas Duda (.295, 20 Rs, 3 HRs, 15 RBIs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 4. Garcia is 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA when pitching against the Mets. He takes on a below-average New York offense which is hitting just .234 this season. Matt Holliday (.328, 17 Rs, 3 HRs, 23 RBIs, 2 SBs) has been successful at the plate, going 3 for 4 yesterday with one run and one RBI.
New York is a -128 favorite against St. Louis and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Mets have recorded an overall money line of +625 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 18-4. New York is an impressive 4-1 as the favorite over its last 10 games. Opposing offenses that come to Citi Field have been stifled by the Mets, who have a team ERA of only 2.64 at home. The Mets are the fifth-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.16 so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, St. Louis has a 5-6 record and an overall money line of +1,128. They played poorly as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 1-4 record, and a 4-6 record SU. St. Louis's pitching staff has set the standard for its league, with an NL-low 2.79 ERA. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Cardinals are the best in the NL on the road with an average of 7.5 hits allowed per away game. The Cardinals have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.9 strikeouts per road game.
The Cardinals lead the season series, 2-1. The Mets have a 3-5 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Garcia takes the mound. deGrom (RHP) will be on the hill against the Cardinals, who have a very good 21-8 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - STL, O/U - Over
St. Louis earned its fourth shutout of the season in its last game. New York has been shut out four times this season.
The Mets are 1-0 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 4-3 in such matchups.
The Cardinals are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Mets have a 5-15 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Mets are 7-15. The Cardinals have a 6-7 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 22nd in home runs, New York has hit 31 this season. St. Louis ranks 18th with 34 home runs.
Ranking 14th, New York is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.78 per game. St. Louis ranks in the top five at second with 9.41.
Ranking 28th, New York is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.652). St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at sixth with an OPS of .746.
The Cardinals are 10-8 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Mets are 10-13 when they allow at least one homer.