Rick Porcello (4-9, 6.08 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (40-45) meet Tom Koehler (7-4, 3.52 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (35-49) in the second of a two-game interleague series at Fenway Park. The Red Sox won the last game 4-3 and Boston leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jul. 8 and will air on FSN-FL and NESN.
In his most recent outing, Porcello pitched 2.0 innings, giving up seven runs and striking out three in an 11-2 loss to the Blue Jays. Dustin Pedroia (.306, 34 Rs, 9 HRs, 33 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 3 yesterday with two RBIs. The Marlins were victorious the last time Koehler pitched. He had a good outing, pitching, going 6.0 innings, allowing one run, striking out four and walking one in a 2-1 victory over the Cubs.
Boston is a -143 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at nine runs. The Red Sox are 23-29 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -1,262. They have performed well against the NL to earn an SU record of 6-4 and a 5-3 record when they were the favorite. The Red Sox have one of the most prolific home offenses in the entire AL, averaging 4.6 runs per game. They typically aren't overmatched by pitchers, ranking second in the AL with an average of only 6.5 strikeouts per game.
Switching gears, the Marlins come into this game with a weak win percentage of .375 when playing as the underdog (18-30) and an overall money line of -1,206. Against interleague competitors, they are 5-8 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 1-5 record. The Marlins will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent offensive struggles. In their 10 most recent games, Miami's run production has dropped to 2.5 runs per game, compared to 4.2 for the duration of the season. Playing AL opponents really brings the worst out of the Miami pitchers. They allow 5.0 runs per game against teams in the AL, which is higher than their season average of 4.1.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 1-0 against the Marlins. This game will feature Koehler (RHP) on the mound against the Red Sox, who have a 30-33 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Marlins will be the right-hander Porcello. They sport a 26-38 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner - BOS, O/U - Over
In their last game, the Marlins lost by a margin of one run. The Red Sox are 13-10 in one-run games. The Marlins have a 14-12 record in close games.
When leading after 7 innings, Boston is 20-20, while Miami is 15-28.
The Red Sox are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Marlins have a 13-35 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
It looks like the Red Sox have a slight leg up on the Marlins, as the Red Sox have won their last three games while the Marlins have lost their last three.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 25-14. The Red Sox have a 33-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 26th in runs, Miami has earned 303 this season. Boston ranks 10th with 358 runs.
Ranking 26th, Miami is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 197 this season. Boston ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 271.
When the Red Sox hit at least one home run, they are 28-27. When the Marlins hit at least one homer, they have a 24-26 record.