The Los Angeles Dodgers will try and stay alive in the NLDS as they host the Washington Nationals in Game 4 on Tuesday afternoon on FS1. The Nationals broke open a close Game 3 as they scored four runs in the 9th inning to win 8-3. The Nationals are expected to go with Joe Ross or Reynaldo Lopez on Tuesday while the Dodgers should be going with Julio Urias unless they decide to bring back Clayton Kershaw on short rest. Urias would be the first 20-year old to start a playoff game since Bret Saberhagen in 1984. The Dodgers are expected to be small home favorites with the total at 7.5 or 8. Let’s look at the contest and MLB predictions.
Probable Pitching Matchup – Ross or Lopez vs. Urias
Ross was 7-5 this season with a 3.43 ERA. He pitched well for the Nationals for much of the season but battled injuries. Lopez was 5-3 with a 4.91 ERA this season
Urias pitched well this season but he never goes deep into games so the bullpen will be a factor for the Dodgers. Urias was 5-2 with a 3.39 ERA this season. He pitched twice against the Nationals this season and allowed three runs in nine innings.
The Nationals have proven to be a good road team this season as they won Game 3 on the road after going 45-36 on the road during the regular season. The Nats are scoring 4.7 runs per game and giving up 3.5 per contest. Washington went under 41 times on the road this season with 36 going over with 4 pushes.
Los Angeles lost Game 3 at home but they were 53-28 at Dodger Stadium during the regular season. The Dodgers went under 51 times at home during the regular season with 30 going over. Los Angeles scores about 4.5 runs per game and allows 3.5 per contest.
The Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Nationals are 38-18 in their last 56 game 4’s of a series.
The Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 4 of a series. The Dodgers are 15-5 in their last 20 Tuesday games. The Dodgers are 44-16 in their last 60 home games. The Dodgers are 9-2 in Urias' last 11 starts.
The Under is 5-2 in the Nationals last 7 playoff games. The Under is 5-2 in the Nationals last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Under is 12-6 in the Nationals last 18 road games. The Under is 7-4 in the Dodgers last 11 playoff games. The Under is 4-1 in Urias' last 5 starts overall. The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles.
I will look for the Dodgers to stay alive and force a Game 5 back in Washington so I will lay the price and take Los Angeles and also play the game under the total.